An Engineering Model of the COVID-19 Trajectory to Predict Success of Isolation Initiatives

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Abstract

The development of the Covid-19 pandemic both in terms of geographical footprint and the growth of cases and fatalities has been the subject of opportune comment and provided the news media with constant and compelling feed. Because the media-reported current state and expected future outcomes show wide variation, modelling has been attempted here using an engineering differential model to provide an evidence-based statement of future expectations.

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Author and article information

Journal

Title: UCL Open: Environment Preprint

Publisher: UCL Press

Publication date (Electronic preprint): 27 April 2020

Affiliations

[1 ] UCL

Article

DOI: 10.14324/111.444/000029.v1

License:

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data availability: Data sharing not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

ScienceOpen disciplines: Earth & Environmental sciences, Engineering

Keywords: The Environment, Covid-19, Engineering model, Recommendations

Comments

UCL Open: Environment Editorial Office wrote:

Decision Date: 15/7/2020

Handling Editor: Dan Osborn

The Handling Editor requested revisions; the article has been returned to the authors to make this revision.

2020-09-17 13:00 UTC

UCL Open: Environment Editorial Office wrote:

Decision Date: 01/05/2020

Handling Editor: Dan Osborn

This article is a preprint article and has not been peer-reviewed. It is under consideration following submission to UCL Open: Environment Preprint for open peer review.

2020-09-17 12:59 UTC

UCL Open: Environment Editorial Office wrote:

There has been one review of this paper so far and a discussion amongst editorial board which agreed with the one reviewer. For the paper to proceed further the following is required.

The paper must make reference to the considerable body of work in public health modelling of viral and other infectious diseases and explain why the approach laid out in the paper has its merits. There is ample material for this if the origin of the model used are properly considered and referenced.
Any equivalence of terms between the widely sued public health models and this model need to be explicitly stated and compared. Without such inter-comparison this model's merits may not be appreciated by a wider audience.
Diagrams need to be improved along the lines indicated by the non-UCL external reviewer.
There is now a lot of additional data and information on lockdown procedures in many parts of the world and the paper should use this information to test the validity of the model proposed.
The relevance of the model to people's environment in either urban or rural areas should be made a little more clear.

Once modified the manuscript can be reconsidered.

on Behalf of Prof. Dan Osborn, Editor-in-Chief

2020-07-15 14:28 UTC

Comment on this article

Version and Review History

Preprint version 2

Preprint version 1

Reviewed by Cesar Bordehore