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      Evacuation of residents in a natural disaster during the COVID-19 era

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          Abstract

          At 11:07 p.m. on 13 February 2021, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 struck Fukushima, Japan, which was considered to be an aftershock of the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) that occurred in March 2011. 1 A tsunami of up to 20 cm was observed as result of this earthquake. In addition to the damage to numerous houses, expressways and railroads, mainly in Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures, as of 15 February, 152 residents were injured; fortunately, there were no fatalities and the damage was limited. This was the first major earthquake since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Japan. Evacuation shelters were opened to affected residents in the hardest-hit municipalities. In Soma City, a northern coastal municipality in Fukushima Prefecture, where the Japanese seismic intensity scale was 6 upper in this quake, 2 evacuation shelters were opened 40 min after the earthquake hit and 87 people, including many elderly, had evacuated by 2:30 a.m. To prevent the spread of COVID-19, in addition to hand disinfection and body temperature checks, two buildings on the same site were prepared for the zoning of people with fever. In the gymnasium, which served as the evacuation shelter, tents with open roofs were set up at intervals of approximately two meters and contained a single household (Figure 1). There was a swift and adequate response, possibly because the damage was limited and the earthquake hit the municipality that had experienced the GEJE and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. In contrast, this event highlighted the importance of preparing for the evacuation of residents in the COVID-19 era. Figure 1. Roof-free tents for ventilation, which can be ventilated for infection measure, were set up for evacuees in a gymnasium in Soma City 40 min after an earthquake on 13 February 2021. This photograph was taken by Naomi Ito, an author of this commentary, on 16 February 2021. The importance of controlling communicable diseases during natural disasters was recognized even before the COVID-19 pandemic. 2 , 3 For example, in Japan, hospital admission rates and estimated morbidity of pneumonia had significantly increased immediately after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995. 4 It has been suggested that influenza virus, norovirus and tuberculosis infections may have occurred in evacuation shelters after the GEJE. 5 , 6 In light of these cases, the need to train experts in infectious disease control during disaster evacuation was suggested even before the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, one of the most disaster-prone areas worldwide. 2 The evacuation response to natural disasters during the COVID-19 pandemic requires more attention. For example, evacuations associated with hurricanes in the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate the spread of infection, emphasizing the need to carefully consider the destination of residents’ evacuation. 7 Recent reports also suggested that disasters may exacerbate infections, especially among the poor. 8 Considering the importance of countermeasures against infectious diseases during past disasters, organizations such as the World Health Organization, the Cabinet Office, Government in Japan and the Japan Medical Association issued strategies for evacuation shelter use under the COVID-19 pandemic, calling for the attention of the public and municipalities. 9 The strategy recommends opening as many evacuation shelters as possible, including hotels and public facilities, limiting the number of people in each evacuation shelter and dispersing evacuation. In public facilities (e.g. school gymnasiums), it is also recommended to consider social distance by using one area for a family and allowing more space between areas. Particularly in areas with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial to respond to residents who have contracted COVID-19 and who are receiving home treatment. Notably, evacuation among the vulnerable, such as the elderly and the disabled, requires special attention. At this time, such vulnerable populations are likely to be affected more if the scale of the disaster is larger. Even vulnerable residents who should evacuate should not be deterred from doing so for fear of being infected with COVID-19. From the experience of the FDNPP accident, the evacuation of the vulnerable may pose a heavier physical and mental burden. 10 A major challenge is that these vulnerable populations are also highly vulnerable to COVID-19. Thus, significant care must be taken to ensure that infection control and minimizing the health impacts of evacuation on them can be implemented safely at the same time. During the COVID-19 pandemic, protecting the health of vulnerable populations requires further consideration. Conflict of interest: None declared.

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          Epidemics after Natural Disasters

          The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings.
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            Compound Risks of Hurricane Evacuation Amid the COVID‐19 Pandemic in the United States

            Abstract The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and included, as of early November, six hurricanes that made landfall in the United States during the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Such an event would necessitate a large‐scale evacuation, with implications for the trajectory of the pandemic. Here we model how a hypothetical hurricane evacuation from four counties in southeast Florida would affect COVID‐19 case levels. We find that hurricane evacuation increases the total number of COVID‐19 cases in both origin and destination locations; however, if transmission rates in destination counties can be kept from rising during evacuation, excess evacuation‐induced case numbers can be minimized by directing evacuees to counties experiencing lower COVID‐19 transmission rates. Ultimately, the number of excess COVID‐19 cases produced by the evacuation depends on the ability of destination counties to meet evacuee needs while minimizing virus exposure through public health directives. These results are relevant to disease transmission during evacuations stemming from additional climate‐related hazards such as wildfires and floods.
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              The impact of a catastrophic earthquake on morbidity rates for various illnesses.

              It has been reported that some natural catastrophes increase morbidity rates for illness. In this study, we investigated the impact of the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake on morbidity rates for various illnesses by analysis for correlations between the extent of damage due to the earthquake and occurrences of various illnesses. We searched the medical records of 1948 patients hospitalized due to illness in 48 hospitals during the first 15 days after the earthquake. In each of 14 affected areas, the hospital admission rate and estimated morbidity ratio for each illness were calculated. Destruction ratios were determined based upon the number of dwellings completely destroyed in each area. For total illnesses and each major illness, linear regression analyses were performed comparing hospital admission rates, estimated morbidity ratios, and destruction ratios. Hospital admission rates and estimated morbidity ratios among the 1948 patients were significantly correlated to destruction ratios. With pneumonia, dehydration, acute heart failure, asthmatic attack, and peptic ulcer, hospital admission rates and estimated morbidity ratios were significantly related to destruction ratios, while no significant correlations between estimated morbidity ratios and destruction ratios existed for cerebral vascular disease or ischemic heart disease. Peptic ulcer and pneumonia showed especially high correlation values (age- and sex-adjusted R2>0.7). The present study revealed a strong link between the extent of damage due to the catastrophic earthquake and an increase in morbidity rates for acute illnesses, especially peptic ulcer and pneumonia.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                QJM
                QJM
                qjmedj
                QJM: An International Journal of Medicine
                Oxford University Press
                1460-2725
                1460-2393
                27 February 2021
                : hcab044
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Research Center for Community Health, Minamisoma Municipal General Hospital , 54-6, 2 Choume, Takami-cho, Haramachi-ku, Minamisoma, Fukushima 975-0033, Japan
                [2 ] Department of Radiation Health Management, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine , 1 Banchi, Hikarigaoka, Fukushima, Fukushima 960-1247, Japan
                [3 ] Department of Surgery, Jyoban Hospital of Tokiwa Foundation , 57 Banchi, Jyobankamiyunaga-Yamachi, Iwaki, Fukushima 972-8322, Japan
                [4 ] Department of Breast Surgery, Jyoban Hospital of Tokiwa Foundation , 57 Banchi, Jyobankamiyunaga-Yamachi, Iwaki, Fukushima 972-8322, Japan
                [5 ] Department of Internal Medicine, Soma Central Hospital , 5-18, 3 Choume, Okinouchi, Soma, Fukushima 976-0016, Japan
                [6 ] Medical Governance Research Institute , 12-13, 2 Choume, Takanawa, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-0074, Japan
                Author notes
                Address correspondence to Dr T. Sawano, Research Center for Community Health, Minamisoma Municipal General Hospital, Fukushima 975-0033, Japan. email: toyoakisawano@ 123456gmail.com
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1482-6618
                Article
                hcab044
                10.1093/qjmed/hcab044
                7989190
                33647970
                944d0ae1-ddf2-45c0-afd2-4fe69438eb15
                © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com

                History
                : 21 February 2021
                Page count
                Pages: 2
                Categories
                Commentary
                AcademicSubjects/MED00010
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                Medicine
                Medicine

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