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      Epidemics after Natural Disasters

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          Abstract

          The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings.

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          Global health impacts of floods: epidemiologic evidence.

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            Risk factors for typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Jakarta, Indonesia.

            The proportion of paratyphoid fever cases to typhoid fever cases may change due to urbanization and increased dependency on food purchased from street vendors. For containment of paratyphoid a different strategy may be needed than for typhoid, because risk factors for disease may not coincide and current typhoid vaccines do not protect against paratyphoid fever. To determine risk factors for typhoid and paratyphoid fever in an endemic area. Community-based case-control study conducted from June 2001 to February 2003 in hospitals and outpatient health centers in Jatinegara district, Jakarta, Indonesia. Enrolled participants were 1019 consecutive patients with fever lasting 3 or more days, from which 69 blood culture-confirmed typhoid cases, 24 confirmed paratyphoid cases, and 289 control patients with fever but without Salmonella bacteremia were interviewed, plus 378 randomly selected community controls. Blood culture-confirmed typhoid or paratyphoid fever; risk factors for both diseases. In 1019 fever patients we identified 88 (9%) Salmonella typhi and 26 (3%) Salmonella paratyphi A infections. Paratyphoid fever among cases was independently associated with consumption of food from street vendors (comparison with community controls: odds ratio [OR], 3.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-7.91; with fever controls: OR, 5.17; 95% CI, 2.12-12.60) and flooding (comparison with community controls: OR, 4.52; 95% CI, 1.90-10.73; with fever controls: OR, 3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-8.02). By contrast, independent risk factors for typhoid fever using the community control group were mostly related to the household, ie, to recent typhoid fever in the household (OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.03-5.48); no use of soap for handwashing (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.06-3.46); sharing food from the same plate (OR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.10-3.37), and no toilet in the household (OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.06-4.55). Also, typhoid fever was associated with young age in years (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.98). In comparison with fever controls, risk factors for typhoid fever were use of ice cubes (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.31-3.93) and female sex (OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.04-3.06). Fecal contamination of drinking water was not associated with typhoid or paratyphoid fever. We did not detect fecal carriers among food handlers in the households. In Jakarta, typhoid and paratyphoid fever are associated with distinct routes of transmission, with the risk factors for disease either mainly within the household (typhoid) or outside the household (paratyphoid).
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              The El Niño southern oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America.

              A better understanding of the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Niño and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by 1 year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Niño forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Emerg Infect Dis
                EID
                Emerging Infectious Diseases
                Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
                1080-6040
                1080-6059
                January 2007
                : 13
                : 1
                : 1-5
                Affiliations
                [* ]World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
                Author notes
                Address for correspondence: John T Watson, Disease Control in Humanitarian Emergencies, Communicable Diseases Cluster, World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland; email: watsonj@ 123456who.int
                Article
                06-0779
                10.3201/eid1301.060779
                2725828
                17370508
                d719cf00-3d0f-458d-a6cc-fa09bd522c58
                History
                Categories
                Perspective

                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                outbreaks,perspective,risk assessment,communicable diseases,surveillance,disasters,epidemiology

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