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      Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains

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          Abstract

          This paper studies the trade effects of COVID‐19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020. Regression results based on a sector‐level gravity model show that the negative trade effects induced by COVID‐19 shocks varied widely across sectors. Sectors more amenable to remote work contracted less throughout the pandemic. Importantly, participation in global value chains increased traders’ vulnerability to shocks suffered by trading partners, but it also reduced their vulnerability to domestic shocks.

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          Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

          Dabo Guan, Daoping Wang, Stephane Hallegatte … (2020)
          Article 0 comments Cited 271 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Networks versus markets in international trade

            James E. Rauch (1999)
            Article 0 comments Cited 231 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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              Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective

              R. del Rio-Chanona, Penny Mealy, Anton Pichler … (2020)
              Abstract We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyse the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labour Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 20 per cent of the US economy’s GDP, jeopardize 23 per cent of jobs, and reduce total wage income by 16 per cent. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to be output-constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining, and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants, and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply- and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks—we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.
              Article 0 comments Cited 128 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Michele Ruta:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1070-2279
                mruta@worldbank.org
                Deborah Winkler:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4891-3522
                dwinkler2@worldbank.org
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): World Econ
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): World Econ
                Journal ID (doi): 10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9701
                Journal ID (publisher-id): TWEC
                Title: The World Economy
                Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                ISSN (Print): 0378-5920
                ISSN (Electronic): 1467-9701
                Publication date (Electronic): 30 March 2021
                Electronic Location Identifier: 10.1111/twec.13117
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] World Bank Washington DC USA
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1584-8544
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1070-2279
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4891-3522
                Article
                Publisher ID: TWEC13117
                DOI: 10.1111/twec.13117
                PMC ID: 8014312
                PubMed ID: 33821085
                SO-VID: 09d21e64-2cd7-43f6-8de7-53c6205e6f01
                Copyright © © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
                License:

                This article is being made freely available through PubMed Central as part of the COVID-19 public health emergency response. It can be used for unrestricted research re-use and analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source, for the duration of the public health emergency.

                History
                Date revision received : 11 February 2021
                Date received : 08 January 2021
                Date accepted : 15 February 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 14, Pages: 29, Words: 19238
                Categories
                Subject: Invited Review
                Subject: Invited Reviews
                Custom metadata
                source-schema-version-number 2.0
                edited-state corrected-proof
                details-of-publishers-convertor Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:6.0.1 mode:remove_FC converted:01.04.2021

                Keywords: covid‐19,global value chains,trade
                Data availability:
                Keywords: covid‐19, global value chains, trade

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