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      Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses

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          Abstract

          This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows using a state-of-the-art gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of 68 countries exporting across 222 destinations between January 2019 and October 2020, our results are threefold. First, we find a greater negative impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade for those countries that were members of regional trade agreements before the pandemic. Second, we find that the impact of COVID-19 is negative and significant when we consider indicators related to governmental actions. Finally, this negative effect is more intense when exporter and importer country share identical income levels. In the latter case, the highest negative impact is found for exports between high-income countries.

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          A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)

          COVID-19 has prompted unprecedented government action around the world. We introduce the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), a dataset that addresses the need for continuously updated, readily usable and comparable information on policy measures. From 1 January 2020, the data capture government policies related to closure and containment, health and economic policy for more than 180 countries, plus several countries' subnational jurisdictions. Policy responses are recorded on ordinal or continuous scales for 19 policy areas, capturing variation in degree of response. We present two motivating applications of the data, highlighting patterns in the timing of policy adoption and subsequent policy easing and reimposition, and illustrating how the data can be combined with behavioural and epidemiological indicators. This database enables researchers and policymakers to explore the empirical effects of policy responses on the spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths, as well as on economic and social welfare.
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            Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS One
                plos
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                13 October 2021
                2021
                13 October 2021
                : 16
                : 10
                : e0258356
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Seville, Andalucía, Spain
                [2 ] Department of Economic Structure and Development Economics, Universidad de Alcalá de Henares, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
                [3 ] Department of Economic Structure and Development Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
                The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, ROMANIA
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9335-6000
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0189-3715
                Article
                PONE-D-21-12117
                10.1371/journal.pone.0258356
                8513914
                34644312
                98bb9d30-2988-43bf-8a57-013507e5f966
                © 2021 Barbero et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 12 April 2021
                : 26 September 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 4, Pages: 20
                Funding
                Funded by: Universidad de Alcalá
                Award ID: COVID-19 UAH 2019/00003/016/001/007
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006302, Universidad de Alcalá;
                Award ID: COVID-19 UAH 2019/00003/016/001/007
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012818, Comunidad de Madrid;
                Award ID: EPU-INV/2020/006
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012818, Comunidad de Madrid;
                Award ID: H2019/HUM5761
                Award Recipient :
                de Lucio and Rodríguez-Crespo thank financial support from Universidad de Alcalá de Henares (UAH) and Banco Santander through research project COVID-19 UAH 2019/00003/016/001/007. De Lucio also thanks financial support from Comunidad de Madrid and UAH (ref: EPU-INV/2020/006 and H2019/HUM5761).
                Categories
                Research Article
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Medical Conditions
                Infectious Diseases
                Viral Diseases
                Covid 19
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Epidemiology
                Pandemics
                Social Sciences
                Economics
                Health Economics
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Health Care
                Health Economics
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Health Care
                Health Care Policy
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Health Care
                Socioeconomic Aspects of Health
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Public and Occupational Health
                Socioeconomic Aspects of Health
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Diagnostic Medicine
                Virus Testing
                Social Sciences
                Economics
                Economic Geography
                Earth Sciences
                Geography
                Economic Geography
                Social Sciences
                Economics
                Commerce
                International Trade
                Custom metadata
                The data underlying the results presented in the study are available from UN Comtrade ( https://comtrade.un.org), the Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII) Gravity database ( http://www.cepii.fr/cepii/en/bdd_modele/presentation.asp?id=8) and from Our World in Data COVID-19 Git Hub repository ( https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data). The three datasets are publicly available for all researchers. Merging the three datasets and following the steps described in the “Model description and estimation strategy” section readers can replicate the results of this manuscript.
                COVID-19

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