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      Survival of eggs to third instar of late-summer and fall-breeding monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) and queen butterflies (Danaus gilippus) in north Texas

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          Eastern migratory monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus) have declined over 80% in recent years, but little is known about fall reproduction in the southern U.S. where monarchs may compete with queen butterflies ( Danaus gilippus).

          Aims/methods

          We provide data on the survival to third instar, associated arthropods, and phenology of fall breeding monarchs and queens in Texas.

          Results

          Monarch and queen survival was relatively high, but varied among years. Oleander aphids ( Aphis nerii), spiders, and red imported fire ants ( Solenopsis invicta) had minor negative effects on survival. The abundance of monarchs and queens on the study site peaked three to four weeks before the main passage of monarchs in the area. Queens had similar phenology and exhibited a migratory pattern similar to monarchs but on a smaller scale.

          Discussion

          Survival of fall monarchs is relatively high and potentially important for winter roost recruitment. Fall survival was not greatly affected by any particular arthropod taxon, but may be affected by precipitation. Fall reproduction is a response to available host plants and its timing enables pupae to eclose in time for migration to winter roosts.

          Implications for insect conservation

          Management of Asclepias viridis and other native milkweeds to facilitate fall reproduction could facilitate recovery of monarchs if it buffers variable productivity further north. Management should use mowing and burn schedules that promote high quality host plants. Populations of queens should be monitored for their potential to compete with monarchs especially in response to the potential impacts of parasite resistance and climate change.

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          Most cited references72

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          Sparse data bias: a problem hiding in plain sight.

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            Ecology and behavior of first instar larval Lepidoptera.

            Neonate Lepidoptera are confronted with the daunting task of establishing themselves on a food plant. The factors relevant to this process need to be considered at spatial and temporal scales relevant to the larva and not the investigator. Neonates have to cope with an array of plant surface characters as well as internal characters once the integument is ruptured. These characters, as well as microclimatic conditions, vary within and between plant modules and interact with larval feeding requirements, strongly affecting movement behavior, which may be extensive even for such small organisms. In addition to these factors, there is an array of predators, pathogens, and parasitoids with which first instars must contend. Not surprisingly, mortality in neonates is high but can vary widely. Experimental and manipulative studies, as well as detailed observations of the animal, are vital if the subtle interaction of factors responsible for this high and variable mortality are to be understood. These studies are essential for an understanding of theories linking female oviposition behavior with larval survival, plant defense theory, and population dynamics, as well as modern crop resistance breeding programs.
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              Unravelling the annual cycle in a migratory animal: breeding-season habitat loss drives population declines of monarch butterflies.

              Threats to migratory animals can occur at multiple periods of the annual cycle that are separated by thousands of kilometres and span international borders. Populations of the iconic monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) of eastern North America have declined over the last 21 years. Three hypotheses have been posed to explain the decline: habitat loss on the overwintering grounds in Mexico, habitat loss on the breeding grounds in the United States and Canada, and extreme weather events. Our objectives were to assess population viability, determine which life stage, season and geographical region are contributing the most to population dynamics and test the three hypotheses that explain the observed population decline. We developed a spatially structured, stochastic and density-dependent periodic projection matrix model that integrates patterns of migratory connectivity and demographic vital rates across the annual cycle. We used perturbation analysis to determine the sensitivity of population abundance to changes in vital rate among life stages, seasons and geographical regions. Next, we compared the singular effects of each threat to the full model where all factors operate concurrently. Finally, we generated predictions to assess the risk of host plant loss as a result of genetically modified crops on current and future monarch butterfly population size and extinction probability. Our year-round population model predicted population declines of 14% and a quasi-extinction probability ( 5% within a century. Monarch abundance was more than four times more sensitive to perturbations of vital rates on the breeding grounds than on the wintering grounds. Simulations that considered only forest loss or climate change in Mexico predicted higher population sizes compared to milkweed declines on the breeding grounds. Our model predictions also suggest that mitigating the negative effects of genetically modified crops results in higher population size and lower extinction risk. Recent population declines stem from reduction in milkweed host plants in the United States that arise from increasing adoption of genetically modified crops and land-use change, not from climate change or degradation of forest habitats in Mexico. Therefore, reducing the negative effects of host plant loss on the breeding grounds is the top conservation priority to slow or halt future population declines of monarch butterflies in North America.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                (View ORCID Profile)
                Journal
                Journal of Insect Conservation
                J Insect Conserv
                Springer Science and Business Media LLC
                1366-638X
                1572-9753
                April 2023
                December 07 2022
                April 2023
                : 27
                : 2
                : 233-248
                Article
                10.1007/s10841-022-00446-8
                f46fe7c7-dfa0-4f35-b716-2d9f70811a1b
                © 2023

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

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