Prediction of fall events during admission using eXtreme gradient boosting: a comparative validation study

Abstract

As the performance of current fall risk assessment tools is limited, clinicians face significant challenges in identifying patients at risk of falling. This study proposes an automatic fall risk prediction model based on eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB), using a data-driven approach to the standardized medical records. This study analyzed a cohort of 639 participants (297 fall patients and 342 controls) from Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi Branch, Taiwan. A derivation cohort of 507 participants (257 fall patients and 250 controls) was collected for constructing the prediction model using the XGB algorithm. A comparative validation of XGB and the Morse Fall Scale (MFS) was conducted with a prospective cohort of 132 participants (40 fall patients and 92 controls). The areas under the curves (AUCs) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the prediction models. This machine learning method provided a higher sensitivity than the standard method for fall risk stratification. In addition, the most important predictors found ( Department of Neuro-Rehabilitation, Department of Surgery, cardiovascular medication use, admission from the Emergency Department, and bed rest ) provided new information on in-hospital fall event prediction and the identification of patients with a high fall risk.