The relationship between gut microbiota and insomnia: a bi-directional two-sample Mendelian randomization research

ABSTRACT Developments in genome‐wide association studies and the increasing availability of summary genetic association data have made application of Mendelian randomization relatively straightforward. However, obtaining reliable results from a Mendelian randomization investigation remains problematic, as the conventional inverse‐variance weighted method only gives consistent estimates if all of the genetic variants in the analysis are valid instrumental variables. We present a novel weighted median estimator for combining data on multiple genetic variants into a single causal estimate. This estimator is consistent even when up to 50% of the information comes from invalid instrumental variables. In a simulation analysis, it is shown to have better finite‐sample Type 1 error rates than the inverse‐variance weighted method, and is complementary to the recently proposed MR‐Egger (Mendelian randomization‐Egger) regression method. In analyses of the causal effects of low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol and high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol on coronary artery disease risk, the inverse‐variance weighted method suggests a causal effect of both lipid fractions, whereas the weighted median and MR‐Egger regression methods suggest a null effect of high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol that corresponds with the experimental evidence. Both median‐based and MR‐Egger regression methods should be considered as sensitivity analyses for Mendelian randomization investigations with multiple genetic variants.

Horizontal pleiotropy occurs when the variant has an effect on disease outside of its effect on the exposure in Mendelian randomization (MR). Violation of the ‘no horizontal pleiotropy’ assumption can cause severe bias in MR. We developed the Mendelian Randomization Pleiotropy RESidual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO) test to identify horizontal pleiotropic outliers in multi-instrument summary-level MR testing. We showed using simulations that MR-PRESSO is best suited when horizontal pleiotropy occurs in <50% of instruments. Next, we applied MR-PRESSO, along with several other MR tests to complex traits and diseases, and found that horizontal pleiotropy: (i) was detectable in over 48% of significant causal relationships in MR; (ii) introduced distortions in the causal estimates in MR that ranged on average from −131% to 201%; (iii) induced false positive causal relationships in up to 10% of relationships; and (iv) can be corrected in some but not all instances.

Mendelian randomisation uses genetic variation as a natural experiment to investigate the causal relations between potentially modifiable risk factors and health outcomes in observational data. As with all epidemiological approaches, findings from Mendelian randomisation studies depend on specific assumptions. We provide explanations of the information typically reported in Mendelian randomisation studies that can be used to assess the plausibility of these assumptions and guidance on how to interpret findings from Mendelian randomisation studies in the context of other sources of evidence