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      Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on routine immunisation services: evidence of disruption and recovery from 170 countries and territories

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          Abstract

          Background

          The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has revealed the vulnerability of immunisation systems worldwide, although the scale of these disruptions has not been described at a global level. This study aims to assess the impact of COVID-19 on routine immunisation using triangulated data from global, country-based, and individual-reported sources obtained during the pandemic period.

          Methods

          This report synthesised data from 170 countries and territories. Data sources included administered vaccine-dose data from January to December, 2019, and January to December, 2020, WHO regional office reports, and a WHO-led pulse survey administered in April, 2020, and June, 2020. Results were expressed as frequencies and proportions of respondents or reporting countries. Data on vaccine doses administered were weighted by the population of surviving infants per country.

          Findings

          A decline in the number of administered doses of diphtheria–pertussis–tetanus-containing vaccine (DTP3) and first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) in the first half of 2020 was noted. The lowest number of vaccine doses administered was observed in April, 2020, when 33% fewer DTP3 doses were administered globally, ranging from 9% in the WHO African region to 57% in the South-East Asia region. Recovery of vaccinations began by June, 2020, and continued into late 2020. WHO regional offices reported substantial disruption to routine vaccination sessions in April, 2020, related to interrupted vaccination demand and supply, including reduced availability of the health workforce. Pulse survey analysis revealed that 45 (69%) of 65 countries showed disruption in outreach services compared with 27 (44%) of 62 countries with disrupted fixed-post immunisation services.

          Interpretation

          The marked magnitude and global scale of immunisation disruption evokes the dangers of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks in the future. Trends indicating partial resumption of services highlight the urgent need for ongoing assessment of recovery, catch-up vaccination strategy implementation for vulnerable populations, and ensuring vaccine coverage equity and health system resilience.

          Funding

          US Agency for International Development.

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          Most cited references26

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          Vaccine hesitancy: the next challenge in the fight against COVID-19

          Amiel Dror, Netanel Eisenbach, Shahar Taiber … (2020)
          Vaccine hesitancy remains a barrier to full population inoculation against highly infectious diseases. Coincident with the rapid developments of COVID-19 vaccines globally, concerns about the safety of such a vaccine could contribute to vaccine hesitancy. We analyzed 1941 anonymous questionnaires completed by healthcare workers and members of the general Israeli population, regarding acceptance of a potential COVID-19 vaccine. Our results indicate that healthcare staff involved in the care of COVID-19 positive patients, and individuals considering themselves at risk of disease, were more likely to self-report acquiescence to COVID-19 vaccination if and when available. In contrast, parents, nurses, and medical workers not caring for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients expressed higher levels of vaccine hesitancy. Interventional educational campaigns targeted towards populations at risk of vaccine hesitancy are therefore urgently needed to combat misinformation and avoid low inoculation rates.
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            Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

            Timothy Roberton, Emily Carter, Victoria Chou … (2020)
            Summary Background While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. Methods We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Findings Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8–44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3–38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18–23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. Interpretation Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.
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              Routine childhood immunisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a benefit–risk analysis of health benefits versus excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection

              Kaja M Abbas, Simon R. Procter, Kevin van Zandvoort … (2020)
              Summary Background National immunisation programmes globally are at risk of suspension due to the severe health system constraints and physical distancing measures in place to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to compare the health benefits of sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa with the risk of acquiring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection through visiting routine vaccination service delivery points. Methods We considered a high-impact scenario and a low-impact scenario to approximate the child deaths that could be caused by immunisation coverage reductions during COVID-19 outbreaks. In the high-impact scenario, we used previously reported country-specific child mortality impact estimates of childhood immunisation for diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type b, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, measles, meningitis A, rubella, and yellow fever to approximate the future deaths averted before 5 years of age by routine childhood vaccination during a 6-month COVID-19 risk period without catch-up campaigns. In the low-impact scenario, we approximated the health benefits of sustaining routine childhood immunisation on only the child deaths averted from measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 risk period. We assumed that contact-reducing interventions flattened the outbreak curve during the COVID-19 risk period, that 60% of the population will have been infected by the end of that period, that children can be infected by either vaccinators or during transport, and that upon child infection the whole household will be infected. Country-specific household age structure estimates and age-dependent infection-fatality rates were applied to calculate the number of deaths attributable to the vaccination clinic visits. We present benefit–risk ratios for routine childhood immunisation, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Findings In the high-impact scenario, for every one excess COVID-19 death attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections acquired during routine vaccination clinic visits, 84 (95% UI 14–267) deaths in children could be prevented by sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa. The benefit–risk ratio for the vaccinated children is 85 000 (4900–546 000), for their siblings ( 60 years) is 96 (14–307). In the low-impact scenario that approximates the health benefits to only the child deaths averted from measles outbreaks, the benefit–risk ratio to the households of vaccinated children is 3 (0–10); if the risk to only the vaccinated children is considered, the benefit–risk ratio is 3000 (182–21 000). Interpretation The deaths prevented by sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa outweigh the excess risk of COVID-19 deaths associated with vaccination clinic visits, especially for the vaccinated children. Routine childhood immunisation should be sustained in Africa as much as possible, while considering other factors such as logistical constraints, staff shortages, and reallocation of resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Lancet Glob Health
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Lancet Glob Health
                Title: The Lancet. Global Health
                Publisher: World Health Organization. Licensee Elsevier Ltd.
                ISSN (Electronic): 2214-109X
                Publication date PMC-release: 21 December 2021
                Publication date (Electronic): 21 December 2021
                Affiliations
                [a ]International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
                [b ]Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Geneva, Switzerland
                [c ]UNICEF, New York, NY, USA
                [d ]WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Dr Anita Shet, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21231, USA
                [** ]Dr Ann Lindstrand, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
                Article
                Publisher Item ID: S2214-109X(21)00512-X
                DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00512-X
                PMC ID: 8691849
                PubMed ID: 34951973
                SO-VID: 65fe20ba-e5d8-4502-af55-ecdf5db8b2cf
                Copyright © © 2021 World Health Organization
                License:

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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