Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan: a comparative modelling study

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Abstract

Introduction

Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. Our study objective was to assess similarities and differences in vaccine-impact projections through comparative modelling analysis by independently estimating the potential health impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

Methods

Using two widely published models (Harvard and Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME)) to estimate HPV vaccination impact, we simulated a vaccination scenario of 90% annual coverage among 10 cohorts of 9-year-old girls from 2021 to 2030 in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. We estimated potential health impact in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years averted among vaccinated cohorts from the time of vaccination until 2100. We harmonised the two models by standardising input data to comparatively estimate HPV vaccination impact.

Results

Prior to harmonising model assumptions, the range between PRIME and Harvard models for number of cervical cancer cases averted by HPV vaccination was: 262 000 to 2 70 000 in Ethiopia; 1 640 000 to 1 970 000 in India; 330 000 to 3 36 000 in Nigeria and 111 000 to 1 33 000 in Pakistan. When harmonising model assumptions, alignment on HPV type distribution significantly narrowed differences in vaccine-impact estimates.

Conclusion

Despite model differences, the Harvard and PRIME models yielded similar vaccine-impact estimates. The main differences in estimates are due to variation in interpretation around data on cervical cancer attribution to HPV-16/18. As countries make progress towards WHO targets for cervical cancer elimination, continued explorations of underlying differences in model inputs, assumptions and results when examining cervical cancer prevention policy will be critical.

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Most cited references 36

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Efficacy of human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine against cervical infection and precancer caused by oncogenic HPV types (PATRICIA): final analysis of a double-blind, randomised study in young women

J Paavonen, P Naud, J. Salmerón … (2009)

The Lancet, 374(9686), 301-314

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Epidemiologic classification of human papillomavirus types associated with cervical cancer.

Nubia Muñoz, F. BOSCH, Silvia de Sanjosé … (2003)

Infection with human papilloma virus (HPV) is the main cause of cervical cancer, but the risk associated with the various HPV types has not been adequately assessed. We pooled data from 11 case-control studies from nine countries involving 1918 women with histologically confirmed squamous-cell cervical cancer and 1928 control women. A common protocol and questionnaire were used. Information on risk factors was obtained by personal interviews, and cervical cells were collected for detection of HPV DNA and typing in a central laboratory by polymerase-chain-reaction-based assays (with MY09/MY11 and GP5+/6+ primers). HPV DNA was detected in 1739 of the 1918 patients with cervical cancer (90.7 percent) and in 259 of the 1928 control women (13.4 percent). With the GP5+/6+ primer, HPV DNA was detected in 96.6 percent of the patients and 15.6 percent of the controls. The most common HPV types in patients, in descending order of frequency, were types 16, 18, 45, 31, 33, 52, 58, and 35. Among control women, types 16, 18, 45, 31, 6, 58, 35, and 33 were the most common. For studies using the GP5+/6+ primer, the pooled odds ratio for cervical cancer associated with the presence of any HPV was 158.2 (95 percent confidence interval, 113.4 to 220.6). The odds ratios were over 45 for the most common and least common HPV types. Fifteen HPV types were classified as high-risk types (16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 68, 73, and 82); 3 were classified as probable high-risk types (26, 53, and 66); and 12 were classified as low-risk types (6, 11, 40, 42, 43, 44, 54, 61, 70, 72, 81, and CP6108). There was good agreement between our epidemiologic classification and the classification based on phylogenetic grouping. In addition to HPV types 16 and 18, types 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 68, 73, and 82 should be considered carcinogenic, or high-risk, types, and types 26, 53, and 66 should be considered probably carcinogenic. Copyright 2003 Massachusetts Medical Society

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Human papillomavirus genotype attribution in invasive cervical cancer: a retrospective cross-sectional worldwide study.

Silvia de Sanjosé, Wim GV Quint, Laia Alemany … (2010)

Knowledge about the distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in invasive cervical cancer is crucial to guide the introduction of prophylactic vaccines. We aimed to provide novel and comprehensive data about the worldwide genotype distribution in patients with invasive cervical cancer. Paraffin-embedded samples of histologically confirmed cases of invasive cervical cancer were collected from 38 countries in Europe, North America, central South America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. Inclusion criteria were a pathological confirmation of a primary invasive cervical cancer of epithelial origin in the tissue sample selected for analysis of HPV DNA, and information about the year of diagnosis. HPV detection was done by use of PCR with SPF-10 broad-spectrum primers followed by DNA enzyme immunoassay and genotyping with a reverse hybridisation line probe assay. Sequence analysis was done to characterise HPV-positive samples with unknown HPV types. Data analyses included algorithms of multiple infections to estimate type-specific relative contributions. 22,661 paraffin-embedded samples were obtained from 14,249 women. 10,575 cases of invasive cervical cancer were included in the study, and 8977 (85%) of these were positive for HPV DNA. The most common HPV types were 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, and 58 with a combined worldwide relative contribution of 8196 of 8977 (91%, 95% CI 90-92). HPV types 16 and 18 were detected in 6357 of 8977 of cases (71%, 70-72) of invasive cervical cancer. HPV types 16, 18, and 45 were detected in 443 of 470 cases (94%, 92-96) of cervical adenocarcinomas. Unknown HPV types that were identified with sequence analysis were 26, 30, 61, 67, 69, 82, and 91 in 103 (1%) of 8977 cases of invasive cervical cancer. Women with invasive cervical cancers related to HPV types 16, 18, or 45 presented at a younger mean age than did those with other HPV types (50·0 years [49·6-50·4], 48·2 years [47·3-49·2], 46·8 years [46·6-48·1], and 55·5 years [54·9-56·1], respectively). To our knowledge, this study is the largest assessment of HPV genotypes to date. HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, and 58 should be given priority when the cross-protective effects of current vaccines are assessed, and for formulation of recommendations for the use of second-generation polyvalent HPV vaccines. Our results also suggest that type-specific high-risk HPV-DNA-based screening tests and protocols should focus on HPV types 16, 18, and 45. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMJ Glob Health

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMJ Glob Health

Journal ID (hwp): bmjgh

Journal ID (publisher-id): bmjgh

Title: BMJ Global Health

Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )

ISSN (Electronic): 2059-7908

Publication date Collection: 2021

Publication date (Electronic): 1 November 2021

Volume: 6

Issue: 11

Electronic Location Identifier: e006940

Affiliations

[1 ]departmentCenter for Health Decision Science , Harvard University T H Chan School of Public Health , Boston, Massachusetts, USA

[2 ]departmentDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London, UK

[3 ]Public Health Foundation of India , New Delhi, India

[4 ]Vitalant Research Institute , San Francisco, California, USA

[5 ]departmentSchool of Public Health , The University of Hong Kong , Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Author notes

[Correspondence to ] Dr Allison Portnoy; aportnoy@ 123456mail.harvard.edu

Author information

Allison Portnoy http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8467-1324

Kaja Abbas http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0563-1576

Mark Jit http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6658-8255

Article

Publisher ID: bmjgh-2021-006940

DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-006940

PMC ID: 8562528

PubMed ID: 34725040

SO-VID: 6507d0f5-23f7-4739-a811-3d87186b0baa

License:

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

History

Date received : 19 July 2021

Date accepted : 18 October 2021

Funding

Funded by: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation;

Award ID: INV-009125

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Keywords: health policy,public health,vaccines,cancer

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Keywords: health policy, public health, vaccines, cancer

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Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan: a comparative modelling study

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Most cited references 36

Efficacy of human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine against cervical infection and precancer caused by oncogenic HPV types (PATRICIA): final analysis of a double-blind, randomised study in young women

Epidemiologic classification of human papillomavirus types associated with cervical cancer.

Human papillomavirus genotype attribution in invasive cervical cancer: a retrospective cross-sectional worldwide study.

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