Strategies for using antigen rapid diagnostic tests to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in low- and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling study applied to Zambia

Abstract

Background

Increasing the availability of antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is key to alleviating global SARS-CoV-2 testing inequity (median testing rate in December 2021-March 2022 when the Omicron variant was spreading in multiple countries; high-income countries = 600 tests/100,000 people/day; LMICs = 14 tests/100,000 people/day). However, target testing levels and effectiveness of asymptomatic community screening to impact SARS-CoV-2 transmission in LMICs are unclear.

Methods

We used PATAT, an LMIC-focused agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 epidemics, varying the amount of Ag-RDTs available for symptomatic testing at healthcare facilities and asymptomatic community testing in different social settings. We assumed that testing was a function of access to healthcare facilities and availability of Ag-RDTs. We explicitly modelled symptomatic testing demand from non-SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals and measured impact based on the number of infections averted due to test-and-isolate.

Results

Testing symptomatic individuals yields greater benefits than any asymptomatic community testing strategy until most symptomatic individuals who sought testing have been tested. Meeting symptomatic testing demand likely requires at least 200-400 tests/100,000 people/day on average as symptomatic testing demand is highly influenced by non-SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. After symptomatic testing demand is satisfied, excess tests to proactively screen for asymptomatic infections among household members yields the largest additional infections averted.

Conclusions

Testing strategies aimed at reducing transmission should prioritize symptomatic testing and incentivizing test-positive individuals to adhere to isolation to maximize effectiveness.