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      Epidemiology of Ebolaviruses from an Etiological Perspective

      , , , ,
      Pathogens
      MDPI AG

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          Abstract

          Since the inception of the ebolavirus in 1976, 32 outbreaks have resulted in nearly 15,350 deaths in more than ten countries of the African continent. In the last decade, the largest (2013–2016) and second largest (2018–2020) ebolavirus outbreaks have occurred in West Africa (mainly Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The 2013–2016 outbreak indicated an alarming geographical spread of the virus and was the first to qualify as an epidemic. Hence, it is imperative to halt ebolavirus progression and develop effective countermeasures. Despite several research efforts, ebolaviruses’ natural hosts and secondary reservoirs still elude the scientific world. The primary source responsible for infecting the index case is also unknown for most outbreaks. In this review, we summarize the history of ebolavirus outbreaks with a focus on etiology, natural hosts, zoonotic reservoirs, and transmission mechanisms. We also discuss the reasons why the African continent is the most affected region and identify steps to contain this virus.

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          Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

          The next new disease Emerging infectious diseases are a major threat to health: AIDS, SARS, drug-resistant bacteria and Ebola virus are among the more recent examples. By identifying emerging disease 'hotspots', the thinking goes, it should be possible to spot health risks at an early stage and prepare containment strategies. An analysis of over 300 examples of disease emerging between 1940 and 2004 suggests that these hotspots can be accurately mapped based on socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors. The data show that the surveillance effort, and much current research spending, is concentrated in developed economies, yet the risk maps point to developing countries as the more likely source of new diseases. Supplementary information The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature06536) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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            Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases

            Zoonoses originating from wildlife represent a significant threat to global health, security and economic growth, and combatting their emergence is a public health priority. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their emergence remains rudimentary. Here we update a global database of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, create a novel measure of reporting effort, and fit boosted regression tree models to analyze the demographic, environmental and biological correlates of their occurrence. After accounting for reporting effort, we show that zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. We present a new global hotspot map of spatial variation in our zoonotic EID risk index, and partial dependence plots illustrating relationships between events and predictors. Our results may help to improve surveillance and long-term EID monitoring programs, and design field experiments to test underlying mechanisms of zoonotic disease emergence.
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              Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

              Summary Most pandemics—eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza—originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                (View ORCID Profile)
                Journal
                PATHCD
                Pathogens
                Pathogens
                MDPI AG
                2076-0817
                February 2023
                February 03 2023
                : 12
                : 2
                : 248
                Article
                10.3390/pathogens12020248
                43e21ef5-a3a2-4169-abef-9d1e7ca89624
                © 2023

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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