Dealing with impact of COVID-19 on transportation in a developing country: Insights and policy recommendations.

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Abstract

While developed nations have established policy frameworks for dealing with various macroeconomic shocks, developing countries respond to the influx of COVID-19 on heterogeneous scales, borne out of varying institutional bottlenecks. These inadequate transport facilities are not diversified enough to deal with an impending public health crisis. With the growing divergence in public transport management procedures and societal responses and willingness to adjust to a "new normal" transport procedures in time of COVID-19 and post-pandemic, it becomes expedient to learn evidence-based policy responses to transport service delivery. Qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with commuters and operators were thematically analysed to understand the impact of COVID-19 on transportation in Lagos Nigeria. The analysis revealed that increased cost of transportation, financial sustainability, changes in travel needs and loss of revenue were the significant impacts of the pandemic. This study contributes such that transport stakeholders can better understand how to navigate their transportation needs at this time of global uncertainty. The understanding of these impacts advances policy recommendations that are most inclined to the development objectives of developing nations in the time of COVID-19 and beyond. The limitations and suggestions for further research were discussed.

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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica Davis, Marco Ajelli … (2020)

Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

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The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Moritz Kraemer, Chia-Hung Yang, Bernardo Gutiérrez … (2020)

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions have been undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.