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      Risk Factors for Childhood Stunting in 137 Developing Countries: A Comparative Risk Assessment Analysis at Global, Regional, and Country Levels.

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          Abstract

          Stunting affects one-third of children under 5 y old in developing countries, and 14% of childhood deaths are attributable to it. A large number of risk factors for stunting have been identified in epidemiological studies. However, the relative contribution of these risk factors to stunting has not been examined across countries. We estimated the number of stunting cases among children aged 24-35 mo (i.e., at the end of the 1,000 days' period of vulnerability) that are attributable to 18 risk factors in 137 developing countries.

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          Most cited references31

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          Maternal and child undernutrition and overweight in low-income and middle-income countries

          The Lancet, 382(9890), 427-451
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            Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

            Summary Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world’s men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world’s poorest regions, especially in south Asia. Funding Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.
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              Evidence-based interventions for improvement of maternal and child nutrition: what can be done and at what cost?

              The Lancet, 382(9890), 452-477
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                PLoS Med.
                PLoS medicine
                Public Library of Science (PLoS)
                1549-1676
                1549-1277
                Nov 2016
                : 13
                : 11
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
                [2 ] Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
                [3 ] Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America.
                [4 ] RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
                [5 ] Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
                [6 ] MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
                [7 ] Wellcome Trust Centre for Global Health Research, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
                [8 ] Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
                Article
                PMEDICINE-D-15-03504
                10.1371/journal.pmed.1002164
                5089547
                27802277
                99471e22-8ceb-4336-8418-c19f120a4b02
                History

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