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      Application of Inherent Risk of Contagion (IRC) framework and modelling to aid local Covid-19 response and mitigation

      Withdrawn from submission


            The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 represents a major global public health problem threatening many countries and territories. Mathematical modelling is one of the non-pharmaceutical public health measures that has the potential to play a crucial role for mitigating the risk and impact of the pandemic. A group of researchers and epidemiologists have developed a machine learning-powered inherent risk of contagion (IRC) analytical framework that, through the geo-referencing of COVID-19 cases in a particular region, is able to provide support to operational platforms from which response and mitigation activities can be planned and executed. This framework dataset provides a coherent picture to track and predict the COVID-19 epidemic post lockdown by piecing together preliminary data on publicly available health statistic metrics alongside the area of reported cases, drivers, vulnerable population, and number of premises that are suspected to become a transmission area between drivers and vulnerable population. The main aim of this new analytical framework is to measure the IRC and provide georeferenced data to protect the health system, aid contact tracing, and prioritise the vulnerable.


            Author and article information

            UCL Open: Environment Preprint
            UCL Press
            20 July 2020
            [1 ] 1. AI4Good, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 2. Artificial Intelligence for Medical Epidemiology (AIME), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
            [2 ] N/A
            [3 ] Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Cyberjaya, Malaysia
            [4 ] 4. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, London, UK 5. Aceso Global Health Consultants Limited, London, UK
            Author information

            This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

            : 20 July 2020
            Selangor State Government MB-SEL. 100-9/2/42 (04)

            The data that support the findings of this study are available from Helmi Zakariah but restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for the current study, and so are not publicly available. Data are however available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission of Helmi Zakariah.
            General environmental science,Environmental engineering,Infectious disease & Microbiology,Public health
            COVID-19,Risk of Contagion,Machine Learning,Risk Ranking Area,Georeference,Environmental modelling,Sustainable development,Sustainability,Sanitation, health, and the environment,Sustainable and resilient cities


            Date: 02 November 2021

            Handling Editor: Prof Dan Osborn

            Decision and status: The submission has been declined for publication by the Editors of UCL Open: Environment and withdrawn from submission. This preprint (and all other versions of it) will remain online on the preprint server with its registered DOI, but the article is no longer under consideration for peer review at UCL Open: Environment and the authors are free to submit this manuscript to any other relevant journal of their choice. For more information about this please read the journal’s Editorial Policy online at https://ucl-about.scienceopen.com/publishing-policies.

            2021-11-02 11:38 UTC

            Date: 13 July 2021

            Handling Editor: Prof Dan Osborn

            Editorial decision: Request revision. The Handling Editor requested revisions; the article has been returned to the authors to make this revision.

            2021-11-02 11:37 UTC

            Date: 21/7/2020

            Handling Editor: Dan Osborn

            This article is a preprint article and has not been peer-reviewed. It is under consideration following submission to UCL Open: Environment Preprint for open peer review.

            2020-09-17 13:29 UTC
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