Quantitative Analysis of Burden of Infectious Diarrhea Associated with Floods in Northwest of Anhui Province, China: A Mixed Method Evaluation

Abstract

Background

Persistent and heavy rainfall in the upper and middle Huaihe River of China brought about severe floods during the end of June and July 2007. However, there has been no assessment on the association between the floods and infectious diarrhea. This study aimed to quantify the impact of the floods in 2007 on the burden of disease due to infectious diarrhea in northwest of Anhui Province.

Methods

A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was firstly conducted to examine the relationship between daily cases of infectious diarrhea and the 2007 floods in Fuyang and Bozhou of Anhui Province. Odds ratios (ORs) of the flood risk were quantified by conditional logistic regression. The years lived with disability (YLDs) of infectious diarrhea attributable to floods were then estimated based on the WHO framework of the calculating potential impact fraction in the Burden of Disease study.

Results

A total of 197 infectious diarrheas were notified during the exposure and control periods in the two study areas. The strongest effect was shown with a 2-day lag in Fuyang and a 5-day lag in Bozhou. Multivariable analysis showed that floods were significantly associated with an increased risk of the number cases of infectious diarrhea (OR = 3.175, 95%CI: 1.126–8.954 in Fuyang; OR = 6.754, 95%CI: 1.954–23.344 in Bozhou). Attributable YLD per 1000 of infectious diarrhea resulting from the floods was 0.0081 in Fuyang and 0.0209 in Bozhou.

Conclusions

Our findings confirm that floods have significantly increased the risks of infectious diarrhea in the study areas. In addition, prolonged moderate flood may cause more burdens of infectious diarrheas than severe flood with a shorter duration. More attention should be paid to particular vulnerable groups, including younger children and elderly, in developing public health preparation and intervention programs. Findings have significant implications for developing strategies to prevent and reduce health impact of floods.