The divergent pathways of the pandemic within South African cities

This paper examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and its related economic, fiscal, social and political fallout on cities and metropolitan regions. We assess the effect of the pandemic on urban economic geography at the intra- and inter-regional geographic scales in the context of four main forces: the social scarring instilled by the pandemic; the lockdown as a forced experiment; the need to secure the urban built environment against future risks; and changes in the urban form and system. At the macrogeographic scale, we argue the pandemic is unlikely to significantly alter the winner-take-all economic geography and spatial inequality of the global city system. At the microgeographic scale, however, we suggest that it may bring about a series of short-term and some longer-running social changes in the structure and morphology of cities, suburbs and metropolitan regions. The durability and extent of these changes will depend on the timeline and length of the pandemic. 本文研究新冠肺炎大流行的影响及其对城市和大都市地区造成的相关经济、财政、社会和政治后果。我们在四种主要力量的背景下，在区域内和区域间地理规模上评估大流行对城市经济地理的影响。这四种力量为：大流行造成的社会创伤；作为一种强迫实验的封锁；确保城市建筑环境免遭未来风险之害的必要性；以及城市形态和系统的变化。在宏观地理规模上，我们认为大流行不太可能显著改变赢家通吃的经济地理和全球城市体系的空间不平等。然而，在微观地理规模上，我们认为它可能会给城市、郊区和大都市地区的结构和形态带来一系列短期的、以及某些长期的社会变化。这些变化的持久性和程度将取决于大流行的时间表和长度。