Assessment of Relative Risk for Sexual and Violent Recidivism With Risk Matrix 2000

Abstract

Risk Matrix 2000’s ability to assess relative risk for sexual and violent recidivism has been well established through meta-analysis. However, the instrument was originally designed for use in the United Kingdom and has not been widely tested in other parts of Europe, raising questions about how generalizable the results are. This paper assessed the instrument’s ability to assess relative risk for these outcomes in a sample of over 300 Austrian adult males serving a prison sentence for a sexual offense for whom 5-year rates of sexual and violent recidivism were available. Results indicated an ability to assess relative risk that was comparable to that observed in the United Kingdom. In the context of previous results from Germany, the findings of the present study indicate that Risk Matrix 2000 may be appropriately applied in Europe. Analyses explored the added value of using the Sexual and Violence risk scales in conjunction to identify the kinds of criminogenic need that should be addressed in treatment and supervision.

Abstract

• The Risk Matrix 2000 S-scale assessed relative risk for sexual recidivism as well in Austria as it has in the United Kingdom where it was developed.

• The Risk Matrix 2000 C-scale assessed relative risk for violence (including contact sex offending) as well in Austria as it has in the United Kingdom where it was developed.

• Considered together, the Risk Matrix S and V scales can suggest whether individuals with a history of sexual offending should be prioritized for sex offense specific treatment or whether targeting more general criminogenic needs should be prioritized.

• Taken with previous research in Germany, this suggests that Risk Matrix 2000 can appropriately be used to assess relative risk for sexual and violent recidivism in Europe.