Estimating the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia

ABSTRACT

We report on an analysis of Australian COVID-19 case data to estimate the impact of TTIQ systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 2020–21. We estimate that in a low prevalence period in the state of New South Wales (tens of cases per day), TTIQ contributed to a 54% reduction in transmission. In a higher prevalence period in the state of Victoria (hundreds of cases per day), TTIQ contributed to a 42% reduction in transmission. Our results also suggest that case-initiated contact tracing can support timely quarantine in times of system stress. Contact tracing systems for COVID-19 in Australia were highly effective and adaptable in supporting the national suppression strategy through 2020 and 2021.