Geospatial modelling on the spread and dynamics of 154 day outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Bangladesh towards vulnerability zoning and management approaches

Abstract

The novel COVID-19 is a worldwide transmitted pandemic and has received global attention. Since there is no effective medication yet, to minimize and control the transmission of the COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are followed globally. However, for the implementation of needful NPIs through effective management strategies and planning, space–time-based information on the nature, magnitude, pattern of transmission, hotspots, the potential risk factors, vulnerability, and risk level of the pandemic are important. Hence, this study was an attempt to in-depth assess and analyze the COVID-19 outbreak and transmission dynamics through space and time in Bangladesh using 154 day real-time epidemiological data series. District-level data were analyzed for the geospatial analysis and modelling using GIS. Getis‐Ord Gi* statistics was applied for the hotspot analysis, and on the other hand, the analytical hierarchy process-based weighted sum method (AHP-WSM) was used for the modelling of vulnerability zoning of COVID-19. In Bangladesh, the status of the pandemic COVID-19 still is in exposure level. Disease transmitted at a high rate (20.37%), and doubling time of the cases were 11 days (latest week of the study period). The fatality rate was comparatively low (1.3%), and the recovery rate was about 57.50%. Geospatial analysis exhibits the disease propagates from the central parts, and Dhaka was the most exposed district followed by Chattogram, Narayanganj, Cumilla, and Bogra. A single strong clustering pattern in the central part, which spread out mainly to the south-eastern part, was identified as a prime hotspot in both the cases and deaths distributions. Additionally, potential linkages between the transmission of disease and the selected factors that gear up the spreading of the disease were identified. The central, eastern, and south-eastern parts were recognized as high vulnerable zone, and conversely, the western, south-western, north-western, and north-eastern parts as medium vulnerable zone. The vulnerable zoning exercise made it possible to identify vulnerable areas with the different magnitude that require urgent intervention through proper management and action plan, and accordingly, comprehensive management strategies were anticipated. Thus, this study will be a useful guide towards understanding the space–time-based investigations and vulnerable area delineation of the COVID-19 and assist to formulate an effective management action plan to reduce and control the disease propagation and impacts. By appropriate adjustment of some factors with local relevance, COVID-19 vulnerability zoning derived here can be applied to other regions, and generally can be used for any other infectious disease. This method was applied at a regional scale, but the availability of larger scale data of the determining factors could be applied in small areas too, and accordingly, management strategies can be formulated.