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      Sars-Cov-2 Infection in People with Type 1 Diabetes and Hospital Admission: An Analysis of Risk Factors for England

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]) pandemic revealed the vulnerability of specific population groups in relation to susceptibility to acute deterioration in their health, including hospital admission and mortality. There is less data on outcomes for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) following SARS-CoV-2 infection than for those with type 2 diabetes (T2D). In this study we set out to determine the relative likelihood of hospital admission following SARS-CoV-2 infection in people with T1D when compared to those without T1D.

          Methods

          This study was conducted as a retrospective cohort study and utilised an all-England dataset. Electronic health record data relating to people in a national England database (NHS England’s Secure Data Environment, accessed via the BHF Data Science Centre's CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT consortium) were analysed. The cohort consisted of patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the exposure was whether or not an individual had T1D prior to infection (77,392 patients with T1D). The patients without T1D were matched for sex, age and approximate date of the positive COVID-19 test, with three SARS-CoV-2-infected people living without diabetes ( n = 223,995). Potential factors influencing the relative likelihood of the outcome of hospital admission within 28 days were ascertained using univariable and multivariable logistic regression.

          Results

          Median age of the people living with T1D was 37 (interquartile range 25–52) years, 47.4% were female and 89.6% were of white ethnicity. Mean body mass index was 27 (standard error [SE] 0.022) kg/m 2, and mean glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) was 67.3 (SE 0.069) mmol/mol (8.3%). A significantly higher proportion of people with T1D (10.7%) versus matched non-diabetes individuals (3.9%) were admitted to hospital. In combined analysis including individuals with T1D and matched controls, multiple regression modelling indicated that the factors independently relating to a higher likelihood of hospital admission were: T1D (odds ratio [OR] 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.62–1.80]), age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.02–1.03), social deprivation (higher Townsend deprivation score: OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.06–1.08), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value (OR 0.975, 95% CI 0.974–0.976), non-white ethnicity (OR black 1.19, 95% CI 1.06–1.33/OR Asian 1.21, 95% CI 1.05–1.39) and having asthma (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.19–1.35]), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.89–2.32), severe mental illness (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.57–2.12) or hypertension (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.37–1.52).

          Conclusion

          In this all-England study, we describe that, following confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2, the risk factors for hospital admission for people living with T1D are similar to people without diabetes following confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, although the former were more likely to be admitted to hospital. The younger age of individuals with T1D in relation to risk stratification must be taken into account in any ongoing risk reduction strategies regarding COVID-19/future viral pandemics.

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          Associations of type 1 and type 2 diabetes with COVID-19-related mortality in England: a whole-population study

          Summary Background Although diabetes has been associated with COVID-19-related mortality, the absolute and relative risks for type 1 and type 2 diabetes are unknown. We assessed the independent effects of diabetes status, by type, on in-hospital death in England in patients with COVID-19 during the period from March 1 to May 11, 2020. Methods We did a whole-population study assessing risks of in-hospital death with COVID-19 between March 1 and May 11, 2020. We included all individuals registered with a general practice in England who were alive on Feb 16, 2020. We used multivariable logistic regression to examine the effect of diabetes status, by type, on in-hospital death with COVID-19, adjusting for demographic factors and cardiovascular comorbidities. Because of the absence of data on total numbers of people infected with COVID-19 during the observation period, we calculated mortality rates for the population as a whole, rather than the population who were infected. Findings Of the 61 414 470 individuals who were alive and registered with a general practice on Feb 16, 2020, 263 830 (0·4%) had a recorded diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, 2 864 670 (4·7%) had a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, 41 750 (0·1%) had other types of diabetes, and 58 244 220 (94·8%) had no diabetes. 23 698 in-hospital COVID-19-related deaths occurred during the study period. A third occurred in people with diabetes: 7434 (31·4%) in people with type 2 diabetes, 364 (1·5%) in those with type 1 diabetes, and 69 (0·3%) in people with other types of diabetes. Unadjusted mortality rates per 100 000 people over the 72-day period were 27 (95% CI 27–28) for those without diabetes, 138 (124–153) for those with type 1 diabetes, and 260 (254–265) for those with type 2 diabetes. Adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, and geographical region, compared with people without diabetes, the odds ratios (ORs) for in-hospital COVID-19-related death were 3·51 (95% CI 3·16–3·90) in people with type 1 diabetes and 2·03 (1·97–2·09) in people with type 2 diabetes. These effects were attenuated to ORs of 2·86 (2·58–3·18) for type 1 diabetes and 1·80 (1·75–1·86) for type 2 diabetes when also adjusted for previous hospital admissions with coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, or heart failure. Interpretation The results of this nationwide analysis in England show that type 1 and type 2 diabetes were both independently associated with a significant increased odds of in-hospital death with COVID-19. Funding None.
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            Risk factors for COVID-19-related mortality in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in England: a population-based cohort study

            Summary Background Diabetes has been associated with increased COVID-19-related mortality, but the association between modifiable risk factors, including hyperglycaemia and obesity, and COVID-19-related mortality among people with diabetes is unclear. We assessed associations between risk factors and COVID-19-related mortality in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Methods We did a population-based cohort study of people with diagnosed diabetes who were registered with a general practice in England. National population data on people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes collated by the National Diabetes Audit were linked to mortality records collated by the Office for National Statistics from Jan 2, 2017, to May 11, 2020. We identified the weekly number of deaths in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes during the first 19 weeks of 2020 and calculated the percentage change from the mean number of deaths for the corresponding weeks in 2017, 2018, and 2019. The associations between risk factors (including sex, age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, HbA1c, renal impairment [from estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)], BMI, tobacco smoking status, and cardiovascular comorbidities) and COVID-19-related mortality (defined as International Classification of Diseases, version 10, code U07.1 or U07.2 as a primary or secondary cause of death) between Feb 16 and May 11, 2020, were investigated by use of Cox proportional hazards models. Findings Weekly death registrations in the first 19 weeks of 2020 exceeded the corresponding 3-year weekly averages for 2017–19 by 672 (50·9%) in people with type 1 diabetes and 16 071 (64·3%) in people with type 2 diabetes. Between Feb 16 and May 11, 2020, among 264 390 people with type 1 diabetes and 2 874 020 people with type 2 diabetes, 1604 people with type 1 diabetes and 36 291 people with type 2 diabetes died from all causes. Of these total deaths, 464 in people with type 1 diabetes and 10 525 in people with type 2 diabetes were defined as COVID-19 related, of which 289 (62·3%) and 5833 (55·4%), respectively, occurred in people with a history of cardiovascular disease or with renal impairment (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1·73 m2). Male sex, older age, renal impairment, non-white ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and previous stroke and heart failure were associated with increased COVID-19-related mortality in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Compared with people with an HbA1c of 48–53 mmol/mol (6·5–7·0%), people with an HbA1c of 86 mmol/mol (10·0%) or higher had increased COVID-19-related mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 2·23 [95% CI 1·50–3·30, p<0·0001] in type 1 diabetes and 1·61 [1·47–1·77, p<0·0001] in type 2 diabetes). In addition, in people with type 2 diabetes, COVID-19-related mortality was significantly higher in those with an HbA1c of 59 mmol/mol (7·6%) or higher than in those with an HbA1c of 48–53 mmol/mol (HR 1·22 [95% CI 1·15–1·30, p<0·0001] for 59–74 mmol/mol [7·6–8·9%] and 1·36 [1·24–1·50, p<0·0001] for 75–85 mmol/mol [9·0–9·9%]). The association between BMI and COVID-19-related mortality was U-shaped: in type 1 diabetes, compared with a BMI of 25·0–29·9 kg/m2, a BMI of less than 20·0 kg/m2 had an HR of 2·45 (95% CI 1·60–3·75, p<0·0001) and a BMI of 40·0 kg/m2 or higher had an HR of 2·33 (1·53–3·56, p<0·0001); the corresponding HRs for type 2 diabetes were 2·33 (2·11–2·56, p<0·0001) and 1·60 (1·47–1·75, p<0·0001). Interpretation Deaths in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes rose sharply during the initial COVID-19 pandemic in England. Increased COVID-19-related mortality was associated not only with cardiovascular and renal complications of diabetes but, independently, also with glycaemic control and BMI. Funding None.
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              Risk prediction of covid-19 related death and hospital admission in adults after covid-19 vaccination: national prospective cohort study

              Objectives To derive and validate risk prediction algorithms to estimate the risk of covid-19 related mortality and hospital admission in UK adults after one or two doses of covid-19 vaccination. Design Prospective, population based cohort study using the QResearch database linked to data on covid-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 results, hospital admissions, systemic anticancer treatment, radiotherapy, and the national death and cancer registries. Settings Adults aged 19-100 years with one or two doses of covid-19 vaccination between 8 December 2020 and 15 June 2021. Main outcome measures Primary outcome was covid-19 related death. Secondary outcome was covid-19 related hospital admission. Outcomes were assessed from 14 days after each vaccination dose. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance was evaluated in a separate validation cohort of general practices. Results Of 6 952 440 vaccinated patients in the derivation cohort, 5 150 310 (74.1%) had two vaccine doses. Of 2031 covid-19 deaths and 1929 covid-19 hospital admissions, 81 deaths (4.0%) and 71 admissions (3.7%) occurred 14 days or more after the second vaccine dose. The risk algorithms included age, sex, ethnic origin, deprivation, body mass index, a range of comorbidities, and SARS-CoV-2 infection rate. Incidence of covid-19 mortality increased with age and deprivation, male sex, and Indian and Pakistani ethnic origin. Cause specific hazard ratios were highest for patients with Down’s syndrome (12.7-fold increase), kidney transplantation (8.1-fold), sickle cell disease (7.7-fold), care home residency (4.1-fold), chemotherapy (4.3-fold), HIV/AIDS (3.3-fold), liver cirrhosis (3.0-fold), neurological conditions (2.6-fold), recent bone marrow transplantation or a solid organ transplantation ever (2.5-fold), dementia (2.2-fold), and Parkinson’s disease (2.2-fold). Other conditions with increased risk (ranging from 1.2-fold to 2.0-fold increases) included chronic kidney disease, blood cancer, epilepsy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, thromboembolism, peripheral vascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. A similar pattern of associations was seen for covid-19 related hospital admissions. No evidence indicated that associations differed after the second dose, although absolute risks were reduced. The risk algorithm explained 74.1% (95% confidence interval 71.1% to 77.0%) of the variation in time to covid-19 death in the validation cohort. Discrimination was high, with a D statistic of 3.46 (95% confidence interval 3.19 to 3.73) and C statistic of 92.5. Performance was similar after each vaccine dose. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted covid-19 mortality risk, sensitivity for identifying covid-19 deaths within 70 days was 78.7%. Conclusion This population based risk algorithm performed well showing high levels of discrimination for identifying those patients at highest risk of covid-19 related death and hospital admission after vaccination.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                adrian.heald@manchester.ac.uk
                Journal
                Diabetes Ther
                Diabetes Ther
                Diabetes Therapy
                Springer Healthcare (Cheshire )
                1869-6953
                1869-6961
                25 August 2023
                25 August 2023
                December 2023
                : 14
                : 12
                : 2031-2042
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.5379.8, ISNI 0000000121662407, The School of Medicine–Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, , The University of Manchester, ; Manchester, UK
                [2 ]Department of Diabetes and Endocrinology, Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust, ( https://ror.org/019j78370) Salford, UK
                [3 ]GRID grid.5379.8, ISNI 0000000121662407, Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, , University of Manchester, ; Manchester, UK
                [4 ]NIHR Greater Manchester Patient Safety Translational Research Centre, The University of Manchester, ( https://ror.org/027m9bs27) Manchester, UK
                [5 ]NIHR Applied Research Collaboration Greater Manchester, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, ( https://ror.org/027m9bs27) Manchester, UK
                [6 ]School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, ( https://ror.org/00vtgdb53) Glasgow, UK
                [7 ]Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, ( https://ror.org/04h699437) Leicester, UK
                [8 ]Department of Sport and Exercise Sciences, Musculoskeletal Science and Sports Medicine Research Centre, Manchester Metropolitan University, ( https://ror.org/02hstj355) Manchester, UK
                [9 ]Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, ( https://ror.org/02hstj355) Manchester, UK
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9537-4050
                Article
                1456
                10.1007/s13300-023-01456-8
                10597906
                37620452
                b81ca361-b197-44f4-85c2-caa389507c3f
                © The Author(s) 2023, corrected publication 2023

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 14 May 2023
                : 21 July 2023
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000274, British Heart Foundation;
                Award ID: SP/19/3/34678
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Original Research
                Custom metadata
                © Springer Healthcare Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023

                Endocrinology & Diabetes
                sars-cov-2,covid-19,type 1 diabetes,outcome
                Endocrinology & Diabetes
                sars-cov-2, covid-19, type 1 diabetes, outcome

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