The 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent birth deficit in Japan

We studied the risk of early loss of pregnancy by collecting daily urine specimens from 221 healthy women who were attempting to conceive. Urinary concentrations of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) were measured for a total of 707 menstrual cycles with use of an immunoradiometric assay that is able to detect hCG levels as low as 0.01 ng per milliliter, with virtually 100 percent specificity for hCG in the presence of luteinizing hormone. Our criterion for early pregnancy--an hCG level above 0.025 ng per milliliter on three consecutive days--was determined after we compared the hCG levels in the study group with the levels in a comparable group of 28 women who had undergone sterilization by tubal ligation. We identified 198 pregnancies by an increase in the hCG level near the expected time of implantation. Of these, 22 percent ended before pregnancy was detected clinically. Most of these early pregnancy losses would not have been detectable by the less sensitive assays for hCG used in earlier studies. The total rate of pregnancy loss after implantation, including clinically recognized spontaneous abortions, was 31 percent. Most of the 40 women with unrecognized early pregnancy losses had normal fertility, since 95 percent of them subsequently became clinically pregnant within two years. Show more

The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated. Show more