Short-term ice accretion forecasting model for transmission lines with modified time-series analysis by fireworks algorithm

Abstract

In order to reduce the damages of transmission line icing, an effective ice accretion forecasting can be used to guide the de-icing work. The ice accretion on transmission lines varies slowly over time, and the icing data series is characteristic of timing sequence and autocorrelation. Time-series analysis is suitable for analysing the similar data series, and fireworks algorithm (FA) is used to determine the autoregressive order and the moving average order of time-series analysis. Then a short-term ice accretion forecasting for transmission lines with modified time-series analysis by FA is built. The ice accretion experiments were done in artificial icing laboratory. The results show that the modified time-series analysis model by the FA has higher accuracy than another five models, whose relative errors are <1.3% and closer to the experimental data. Field applications also show that the modified time-series analysis model has higher accuracy than the traditional one for the short-term ice accretion forecasting, whose average error rates are separately 2.6723 and 5.2654%.