TGF Beta as a Prognostic Biomarker of COVID-19 Severity in Patients with NAFLD—A Prospective Case–Control Study

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Abstract

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), the leading cause of chronic liver disease in Western countries, has been identified as a possible risk factor for COVID-19 severity. However, the immunological mechanisms by which NAFLD exacerbates COVID-19 remain unknown. Transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-β1) has an important immunomodulatory and pro-fibrotic role, which has already been described in NAFLD. However, the role of TGF-β1 in COVID-19 remains unclear, and could also be the pathophysiology link between these two conditions. The aim of this case–control study was to analyze the expression of TGF-β1 in COVID-19 patients depending on the presence of NAFLD and COVID-19 severity. Serum TGF-β1 concentrations were measured in 60 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (30 with NAFLD). NAFLD was associated with higher serum TGF-β1 concentrations that increased with disease severity. Admission TGF-β1 concentrations showed good discriminative accuracy in predicting the development of critical disease and COVID-19 complications (need for advanced respiratory support, ICU admission, time to recovery, development of nosocomial infections and mortality). In conclusion, TGF-β1 could be an efficient biomarker for predicting COVID-19 severity and adverse outcomes in patients with NAFLD.

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Global epidemiology of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease-Meta-analytic assessment of prevalence, incidence, and outcomes.

Zobair Younossi, Aaron Koenig, Dinan Abdelatif … (2016)

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major cause of liver disease worldwide. We estimated the global prevalence, incidence, progression, and outcomes of NAFLD and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). PubMed/MEDLINE were searched from 1989 to 2015 for terms involving epidemiology and progression of NAFLD. Exclusions included selected groups (studies that exclusively enrolled morbidly obese or diabetics or pediatric) and no data on alcohol consumption or other liver diseases. Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhosis, overall mortality, and liver-related mortality were determined. NASH required histological diagnosis. All studies were reviewed by three independent investigators. Analysis was stratified by region, diagnostic technique, biopsy indication, and study population. We used random-effects models to provide point estimates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of prevalence, incidence, mortality and incidence rate ratios, and metaregression with subgroup analysis to account for heterogeneity. Of 729 studies, 86 were included with a sample size of 8,515,431 from 22 countries. Global prevalence of NAFLD is 25.24% (95% CI: 22.10-28.65) with highest prevalence in the Middle East and South America and lowest in Africa. Metabolic comorbidities associated with NAFLD included obesity (51.34%; 95% CI: 41.38-61.20), type 2 diabetes (22.51%; 95% CI: 17.92-27.89), hyperlipidemia (69.16%; 95% CI: 49.91-83.46%), hypertension (39.34%; 95% CI: 33.15-45.88), and metabolic syndrome (42.54%; 95% CI: 30.06-56.05). Fibrosis progression proportion, and mean annual rate of progression in NASH were 40.76% (95% CI: 34.69-47.13) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.06-0.12). HCC incidence among NAFLD patients was 0.44 per 1,000 person-years (range, 0.29-0.66). Liver-specific mortality and overall mortality among NAFLD and NASH were 0.77 per 1,000 (range, 0.33-1.77) and 11.77 per 1,000 person-years (range, 7.10-19.53) and 15.44 per 1,000 (range, 11.72-20.34) and 25.56 per 1,000 person-years (range, 6.29-103.80). Incidence risk ratios for liver-specific and overall mortality for NAFLD were 1.94 (range, 1.28-2.92) and 1.05 (range, 0.70-1.56).

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An inflammatory cytokine signature predicts COVID-19 severity and survival

Diane Marie Del Valle, Seunghee Kim-Schulze, Hsin-Hui Huang … (2020)

Several studies have revealed that the hyper-inflammatory response induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a major cause of disease severity and death. However, predictive biomarkers of pathogenic inflammation to help guide targetable immune pathways are critically lacking. We implemented a rapid multiplex cytokine assay to measure serum interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and IL-1β in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) upon admission to the Mount Sinai Health System in New York. Patients (n = 1,484) were followed up to 41 d after admission (median, 8 d), and clinical information, laboratory test results and patient outcomes were collected. We found that high serum IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α levels at the time of hospitalization were strong and independent predictors of patient survival (P < 0.0001, P = 0.0205 and P = 0.0140, respectively). Notably, when adjusting for disease severity, common laboratory inflammation markers, hypoxia and other vitals, demographics, and a range of comorbidities, IL-6 and TNF-α serum levels remained independent and significant predictors of disease severity and death. These findings were validated in a second cohort of patients (n = 231). We propose that serum IL-6 and TNF-α levels should be considered in the management and treatment of patients with COVID-19 to stratify prospective clinical trials, guide resource allocation and inform therapeutic options.