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      Save 4.2 Million Lives and Generate $1.1 Trillion in Economic Benefits for Only $41 Billion: Introduction to the Special Issue on the Most Efficient Policies for the Sustainable Development Goals

      Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis
      Cambridge University Press (CUP)

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          Abstract

          The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are ambitious but in deep trouble. Benefit–cost analysis can help. This Special Issue highlights 12 of the most efficient interventions to speed up progress on the SDGs with Benefit–Cost Ratios (BCRs) above 15. The approaches cover tuberculosis, education, maternal and newborn health, agricultural R&D, malaria, e-procurement, nutrition, land tenure security, chronic diseases, trade, child immunization, and skilled migration. Spanning 2023–2030, these policy approaches are estimated to cost an annual average of $41 billion (of which $6 billion is non-financial). They will realistically deliver $2.1 trillion in annual benefits, consisting of $1.1 trillion in economic benefits and 4.2 million lives saved. The pooled benefit–cost ratio of all 12 investments is 52. By prioritizing these high-impact “best buy” interventions, decision-makers can enhance resource allocation and contribute most efficiently to the SDGs.

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          Most cited references30

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          The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

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            Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions in Global Benefit-Cost Analysis

            The estimates used to value mortality risk reductions are a major determinant of the benefits of many public health and environmental policies. These estimates (typically expressed as the value per statistical life, VSL) describe the willingness of those affected by a policy to exchange their own income for the risk reductions they experience. While these values are relatively well studied in high-income countries, less is known about the values held by lower-income populations. We identify 26 studies conducted in the 172 countries considered low- or middle-income in any of the past 20 years; several have significant limitations. Thus there are few or no direct estimates of VSL for most such countries. Instead, analysts typically extrapolate values from wealthier countries, adjusting only for income differences. This extrapolation requires selecting a base value and an income elasticity that summarizes the rate at which VSL changes with income. Because any such approach depends on assumptions of uncertain validity, we recommend that analysts conduct a standardized sensitivity analysis to assess the extent to which their conclusions change depending on these estimates. In the longer term, more research on the value of mortality risk reductions in low- and middle-income countries is essential.
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              Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth

              This study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5), illustrating particular importance for understanding extreme outcomes. Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010–2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis
                J. Benefit Cost Anal.
                Cambridge University Press (CUP)
                2194-5888
                2152-2812
                October 16 2023
                : 1-15
                Article
                10.1017/bca.2023.32
                9dbea4e6-b453-45c7-b590-83c3312bf602
                © 2023

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

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