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      Is Open Access

      Overdose, opioid treatment admissions and prescription opioid pain reliever relationships: United States, 2010–2019

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          Abstract

          Background

          “As part of the U.S. government's urgent response to the epidemic of overdose deaths ( 1)” the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued the “CDC Guideline for Prescribing Opioids for Chronic Pain-United States, 2016 ( 2)” (guideline) followed by the “CDC Clinical Practice Guideline for Prescribing Opioids–United States, 2022 ( 3) (guideline update). ” The guideline and guideline update cite a direct correlation between prescription opioids sales (POS) and opioid treatment admissions (OTA) and prescription opioid deaths (POD), which was based on data from 1999 to 2010. This paper updates those relationships and includes the correlations between prescription opioid sales (POS) and any opioid deaths (AOD) and total overdose deaths (TOD) from 2010 to 2019.

          Methods

          Linear regression models were fit to each response separately. Opioid sales (measured as MME (morphine milligram equivalent) per capita) was the independent variable. Total overdose deaths (TOD), any opioid overdose deaths (AOD), prescription opioid overdose deaths (POD) and opioid treatment admissions (OTA) were the dependent, response variables. The models were assessed using three criteria: the statistical significance of the model (Overall P-Value), the quality of the fit ( R 2), and the sign of the slope coefficient (positive or negative).

          Results

          The analyses revealed that the direct correlations (i.e., significant, positive slopes) reported by the CDC based on data from 1999 to 2010 no longer exist. Based on data from 2010 to 2019, the relationships either have reversed (i.e., significant, negative slopes) or are non-existent (i.e., no significant model).

          Conclusions

          The guideline, guideline update, CDC's public, medical profession, and intergovernmental communications should be corrected/updated to state no direct correlation has existed between POS to OTA, POD, AOD, and TOD since 2010. Individualized patient care and public health policy should be amended accordingly.

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          Most cited references14

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          The Prescription Opioid and Heroin Crisis: A Public Health Approach to an Epidemic of Addiction

          Annual Review of Public Health, 36(1), 559-574
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            Opioid Crisis: No Easy Fix to Its Social and Economic Determinants

            The accepted wisdom about the US overdose crisis singles out prescribing as the causative vector. Although drug supply is a key factor, we posit that the crisis is fundamentally fueled by economic and social upheaval, its etiology closely linked to the role of opioids as a refuge from physical and psychological trauma, concentrated disadvantage, isolation, and hopelessness. Overreliance on opioid medications is emblematic of a health care system that incentivizes quick, simplistic answers to complex physical and mental health needs. In an analogous way, simplistic measures to cut access to opioids offer illusory solutions to this multidimensional societal challenge. We trace the crisis’ trajectory through the intertwined use of opioid analgesics, heroin, and fentanyl analogs, and we urge engaging the structural determinants lens to address this formidable public health emergency. A broad focus on suffering should guide both patient- and community-level interventions.
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              Quantifying the Epidemic of Prescription Opioid Overdose Deaths

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Pain Res (Lausanne)
                Front Pain Res (Lausanne)
                Front. Pain Res.
                Frontiers in Pain Research
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                2673-561X
                2673-561X
                04 August 2022
                2022
                : 3
                : 884674
                Affiliations
                [1] 1Independent Researcher , Hampshire, IL, United States
                [2] 2Carr Consulting , Wilmette, IL, United States
                Author notes

                Edited by: Tony L. Yaksh, University of California, San Diego, United States

                Reviewed by: S. Stevens Negus, Virginia Commonwealth University, United States; Kenta Wakaizumi, Keio University School of Medicine, Japan

                *Correspondence: B. Thomas Carr tom.carr@ 123456carrconsulting.net

                This article was submitted to Pain Research Methods, a section of the journal Frontiers in Pain Research

                Article
                10.3389/fpain.2022.884674
                9385960
                971275ef-c4e1-4855-9d43-bbad1622fa6a
                Copyright © 2022 Aubry and Carr.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 26 February 2022
                : 11 July 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 3, Equations: 0, References: 37, Pages: 9, Words: 5127
                Categories
                Pain Research
                Policy and Practice Reviews

                prescription opioid sales,overdose deaths,opioid treatment admissions,cdc guideline,statistical analysis,analysis of historical data

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