Risk factors for mortality among patients admitted with upper gastrointestinal bleeding at a tertiary hospital: a prospective cohort study

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Abstract

Background

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common gastrointestinal emergency, which is potentially fatal. Proper management of UGIB requires risk-stratification of patients which can guide the type and aggressiveness of management. The aim of this was study was identify the causes of UGIB and factors that increase the risk of mortality in these patients.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study conducted over a period of seven months at a tertiary hospital. Adults admitted with UGIB were included in the study. Demographic data, laboratory parameters and endoscopic findings were recorded. Patients were then followed up for 60 days to identify the occurrence of mortality. Chi-square tests and cox-regression was used to determine association between risk factors and mortality in the bivariate and multivariate analysis, respectively.

Results

A total of 170 patients with UGIB were included. Males accounted for the majority (71.2%). Median age of the study population was 40.0 years. Chronic liver disease was present in 30.6% of study patients. The most common cause of UGIB among the 86 patients who underwent endoscopy was oesophageal varices (57%), followed by peptic ulcer disease (18%) and gastritis (10%). Mortality occurred in 57 patients (33.5%) and was significantly higher in patients with high white blood cell count (HR 2.45, p 0.011), raised serum alanine aminotransferase (HR 4.22, p 0.016), raised serum total bilirubin (HR 5.79, p 0.008) and lack of an endoscopic procedure done (HR 4.40, p <0.001). Rebleeding was reported in 12 patients (7.1%) and readmission due to UGIB in 4 patients (2.4%)

Conclusions

Oesophageal varices was the most common cause of UGIB. One-third of patients admitted with upper gastrointestinal bleeding died within 60 days of admission, signifying a high burden. Rebleeding and readmission rates were low. A high WBC count, raised serum ALT, raised serum total bilirubin and a lack of endoscopy were independent predictors of mortality. These findings can be used to risk-stratify patients who may benefit from early and more aggressive management.

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Epidemiology and control of human schistosomiasis in Tanzania

Humphrey D. Mazigo, Fred Nuwaha, Safari M Kinung’hi … (2012)

In Tanzania, the first cases of schistosomiasis were reported in the early 19th century. Since then, various studies have reported prevalences of up to 100% in some areas. However, for many years, there have been no sustainable control programmes and systematic data from observational and control studies are very limited in the public domain. To cover that gap, the present article reviews the epidemiology, malacology, morbidity, and the milestones the country has made in efforts to control schistosomiasis and discusses future control approaches. The available evidence indicates that, both urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis are still highly endemic in Tanzania and cause significant morbidity.Mass drug administration using praziquantel, currently used as a key intervention measure, has not been successful in decreasing prevalence of infection. There is therefore an urgent need to revise the current approach for the successful control of the disease. Clearly, these need to be integrated control measures.

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Consensus recommendations for managing patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Julieann Marshall, Marc Bardou, … (2003)

The management of patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding has evolved substantially over the past 10 years amid a paucity of published consensus guidelines. To provide evidence-based management recommendations that address clinically relevant issues. REVIEW AND CONSENSUS PROCESSES: A multidisciplinary consensus group of 25 voting participants representing 11 national societies used a 7-step approach to develop recommendation statements according to accepted standards. Sources of data included narrative and systematic reviews as well as published and new meta-analyses. The quality of the evidence, the strength of the recommendation, and the level of consensus were graded according to recognized classifications. Recommendations emphasize appropriate initial resuscitation of the patient and a multidisciplinary approach to clinical risk stratification that determines the need for early endoscopy. Early endoscopy allows safe and prompt discharge of selected patients classified as low risk. Endoscopic hemostasis is reserved for patients with high-risk endoscopic lesions. Although monotherapy with injection or thermal coagulation is effective, the combination is superior to either treatment alone. The placement of endoscopic clips for endoscopic hemostasis appears promising. High-dose intravenous proton-pump inhibition is recommended in patients who have undergone successful endoscopic therapy. Routine second-look endoscopy is not recommended. Patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding should be tested for Helicobacter pylori infection and receive eradication therapy if infection is present. The efficacy of newer endoscopic therapeutic technologies, the optimal regimen of proton-pump inhibition, and the roles of other pharmacologic agents require further research.

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Abdul Ebrahim, G Wannamethee, A. Gerald Shaper … (1995)

The possibility that low concentrations of serum bilirubin may be associated with increased risk of ischemic heart disease has been examined in a prospective study of 7685 middle-aged British men. During 11.5 years there were 737 major ischemic heart disease (IHD) events. A U-shaped relationship was observed between serum bilirubin and risk of IHD. Low bilirubin was associated with several cardiovascular risk factors, in particular smoking, low concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s, and low serum albumin. The U-shaped relationship persisted even after adjusting for several risk factors. Compared with men in the lowest fifth of the distribution (bilirubin 12 mumol/L) showed similar risk to the lowest fifth [RR = 0.99 (95% confidence intervals 0.73-1.34)], which persisted after exclusion of men with bilirubin > 17 mumol/L. The significance of this U-shaped relationship is unclear, but it could be interpreted as support for the role of endogenous antioxidants in the etiology of IHD.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Sibtain M. Moledina:

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5100-2872

sibumole@hotmail.com

Ewaldo Komba: kombaewaldo@gmail.com

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Gastroenterol

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMC Gastroenterol

Title: BMC Gastroenterology

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 1471-230X

Publication date (Electronic): 20 December 2017

Publication date PMC-release: 20 December 2017

Publication date Collection: 2017

Volume: 17

Electronic Location Identifier: 165

Affiliations

ISNI 0000 0001 1481 7466, GRID grid.25867.3e, Department of Internal Medicine, , Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, ; P.O. Box 65001, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Author information

Sibtain M. Moledina http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5100-2872

Article

Publisher ID: 712

DOI: 10.1186/s12876-017-0712-8

PMC ID: 5738843

PubMed ID: 29262794

SO-VID: 9691aabe-d73f-4b46-a7fb-5c2ac6ec14f2

License:

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.