Evaluating the effect of climate change on rice production in Indonesia using multimodelling approach

Abstract

Achieving global food security in the face of climate change is a critical challenge, particularly in vulnerable countries like Indonesia. To effectively address this challenge, a systems-based approach utilizing climate-hydrological-crop models has emerged as an integral approach. These models integrate climate, hydrological, and crop components to understand and predict the complex interactions within agricultural systems and their responses to climate variables. By employing this approach, policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders can gain comprehensive insights into the potential consequences of climate change on crop growth, water availability, soil fertility, and overall crop yield. However, challenges exist in the implementation of this approach, including data reliability; scarcity of complete long-term data; lack of experimental information about crop species, especially local varieties; inadequate research resources; lack of expertise concerning modeling approaches; lack of testing; inaccurate testing; calibration; and model uncertainties. Furthermore, to address limitations and challenges in implementing this approach, improving the availability and reliability of data, collection method, and data quality should be conducted to ensure the accuracy of simulation and prediction. Finally, climate-hydrological-crop models, alongside improved data collection and modelling techniques, serve as essential tools for guiding the development of effective adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on rice production in Indonesia.