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Abstract
Providing the highest quality care for dying patients should be a core clinical proficiency
and an integral part of comprehensive management, as fundamental as diagnosis and
treatment. The aim of this study was to provide expert consensus on phenomena for
identification and prediction of the last hours or days of a patient's life. This
study is part of the OPCARE9 project, funded by the European Commission's Seventh
Framework Programme.
To offer evidence-based clinical recommendations concerning prognosis in advanced cancer patients. A Working Group of the Research Network of the European Association for Palliative Care identified clinically significant topics, reviewed the studies, and assigned the level of evidence. A formal meta-analysis was not feasible because of the heterogeneity of published studies and the lack of minimal standards in reporting results. A systematic electronic literature search within the main available medical literature databases was performed for each of the following four areas identified: clinical prediction of survival (CPS), biologic factors, clinical signs and symptoms and psychosocial variables, and prognostic scores. Only studies on patients with advanced cancer and survival < or = 90 days were included. A total of 38 studies were evaluated. Level A evidence-based recommendations of prognostic correlation could be formulated for CPS (albeit with a series of limitations of which clinicians must be aware) and prognostic scores. Recommendations on the use of other prognostic factors, such as performance status, symptoms associated with cancer anorexia-cachexia syndrome (weight loss, anorexia, dysphagia, and xerostomia), dyspnea, delirium, and some biologic factors (leukocytosis, lymphocytopenia, and C-reactive protein), reached level B. Prognostication of life expectancy is a significant clinical commitment for clinicians involved in oncology and palliative care. More accurate prognostication is feasible and can be achieved by combining clinical experience and evidence from the literature. Using and communicating prognostic information should be part of a multidisciplinary palliative care approach.
Although accurate prediction of survival is essential for palliative care, few clinical methods of determining how long a patient is likely to live have been established. To develop a validated scoring system for survival prediction, a retrospective cohort study was performed with a training-testing procedure on two independent series of terminally ill cancer patients. Performance status (PS) and clinical symptoms were assessed prospectively. In the training set (355 assessments on 150 patients) the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) was defined by PS, oral intake, edema, dyspnea at rest, and delirium. In the testing sample (233 assessments on 95 patients) the predictive values of this scoring system were examined. In the testing set, patients were classified into three groups: group A (PPI 4.0). Group B survived significantly longer than group C, and group A survived significantly longer than either of the others. Also, when a PPI of more than 6 was adopted as a cut-off point, 3 weeks' survival was predicted with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 85%. When a PPI of more than 4 was used as a cutoff point, 6 weeks' survival was predicted with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 77%. In conclusion, whether patients live longer than 3 or 6 weeks can be acceptably predicted by PPI.
Palliative care services have developed rapidly over the past 30 years, with little evaluation as to how needs have been met by these new services. As part of a systematic review of palliative care, evidence of the needs of patients and carers has been evaluated from the current literature. Of the total of 673 articles related to the 10 areas within the main review, 64 provided evidence on the need for palliative care services over the period from 1978 to 1997. A further nine articles were added in November 1998 after the end of the study of update the review with more recent research. Need can be assessed in one of two ways: either by adopting an epidemiological approach or by examining health service usage. In the former, evidence is provided on disease-specific mortality, and related to the duration of symptoms prior to the patient's death. As an example of this, it is suggested that services may need to provide pain control for 2800 patients per million (p/M) population dying from cancer each year and 3400 p/M with noncancer terminal illness. Using health service usage as an indicator of need, 700-1800 p/M with cancer and 350-1400 p/M with noncancer terminal illness would require a support team or specialist palliative home care nurse, with 400-700 cancer p/M and 200-700 noncancer p/M requiring inpatient terminal care. Studies indicate that at present usage, palliative care is being provided by 40-50 hospice beds/M. Despite this provision, there remains evidence that in certain areas of care such as pain control, there still remains a high degree of unmet need.
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