Beyond COVID-19: Do biothermodynamic properties allow predicting the future evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants? <sup>☆</sup>

Popović, Marko

doi:10.1016/j.mran.2022.100232

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Beyond COVID-19: Do biothermodynamic properties allow predicting the future evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants? ^☆

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Author(s): Marko Popovic

Publication date (Electronic): 31 August 2022

Journal: Microbial Risk Analysis

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

Keywords: Gibbs energy of binding, Gibbs energy of growth, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, Mechanistic model

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Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many statistical and epidemiological studies have been published, trying to predict the future development of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, it would be beneficial to have a specific, mechanistic biophysical model, based on the driving forces of processes performed during virus-host interactions and fundamental laws of nature, allowing prediction of future evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses. In this paper, an attempt was made to predict the development of the pandemic, based on biothermodynamic parameters: Gibbs energy of binding and Gibbs energy of growth. Based on analysis of biothermodynamic parameters of various variants of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV that appeared during evolution, an attempt was made to predict the future directions of evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and potential occurrence of new strains that could lead to new pandemic waves. Possible new mutations that could appear in the future could lead to changes in chemical composition, biothermodynamic properties (driving forces of new virus strains) and biological properties of SARS CoV-2 that represent a risk for humanity.

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SARS-CoV-2 variants, spike mutations and immune escape

William T. Harvey, Alessandro M. Carabelli, Ben Jackson … (2021)

Although most mutations in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome are expected to be either deleterious and swiftly purged or relatively neutral, a small proportion will affect functional properties and may alter infectivity, disease severity or interactions with host immunity. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 was followed by a period of relative evolutionary stasis lasting about 11 months. Since late 2020, however, SARS-CoV-2 evolution has been characterized by the emergence of sets of mutations, in the context of ‘variants of concern’, that impact virus characteristics, including transmissibility and antigenicity, probably in response to the changing immune profile of the human population. There is emerging evidence of reduced neutralization of some SARS-CoV-2 variants by postvaccination serum; however, a greater understanding of correlates of protection is required to evaluate how this may impact vaccine effectiveness. Nonetheless, manufacturers are preparing platforms for a possible update of vaccine sequences, and it is crucial that surveillance of genetic and antigenic changes in the global virus population is done alongside experiments to elucidate the phenotypic impacts of mutations. In this Review, we summarize the literature on mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the primary antigen, focusing on their impacts on antigenicity and contextualizing them in the protein structure, and discuss them in the context of observed mutation frequencies in global sequence datasets. The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been characterized by the emergence of mutations and so-called variants of concern that impact virus characteristics, including transmissibility and antigenicity. In this Review, members of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium and colleagues summarize mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, focusing on their impacts on antigenicity and contextualizing them in the protein structure, and discuss them in the context of observed mutation frequencies in global sequence datasets.

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Human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is a functional receptor for SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Here we identify the SARS-CoV spike (S)-protein-binding site on ACE2. We also compare S proteins of SARS-CoV isolated during the 2002–2003 SARS outbreak and during the much less severe 2003–2004 outbreak, and from palm civets, a possible source of SARS-CoV found in humans. All three S proteins bound to and utilized palm-civet ACE2 efficiently, but the latter two S proteins utilized human ACE2 markedly less efficiently than did the S protein obtained during the earlier human outbreak. The lower affinity of these S proteins could be complemented by altering specific residues within the S-protein-binding site of human ACE2 to those of civet ACE2, or by altering S-protein residues 479 and 487 to residues conserved during the 2002–2003 outbreak. Collectively, these data describe molecular interactions important to the adaptation of SARS-CoV to human cells, and provide insight into the severity of the 2002–2003 SARS epidemic.

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Mechanisms of viral mutation

Rafael Sanjuán, Pilar Domingo-Calap (2016)

The remarkable capacity of some viruses to adapt to new hosts and environments is highly dependent on their ability to generate de novo diversity in a short period of time. Rates of spontaneous mutation vary amply among viruses. RNA viruses mutate faster than DNA viruses, single-stranded viruses mutate faster than double-strand virus, and genome size appears to correlate negatively with mutation rate. Viral mutation rates are modulated at different levels, including polymerase fidelity, sequence context, template secondary structure, cellular microenvironment, replication mechanisms, proofreading, and access to post-replicative repair. Additionally, massive numbers of mutations can be introduced by some virus-encoded diversity-generating elements, as well as by host-encoded cytidine/adenine deaminases. Our current knowledge of viral mutation rates indicates that viral genetic diversity is determined by multiple virus- and host-dependent processes, and that viral mutation rates can evolve in response to specific selective pressures.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Microb Risk Anal

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Microb Risk Anal

Title: Microbial Risk Analysis

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

ISSN (Print): 2352-3522

ISSN (Electronic): 2352-3530

Publication date PMC-release: 31 August 2022

Publication date (Print): December 2022

Publication date (Electronic): 31 August 2022

Volume: 22

Page: 100232

Affiliations

[0001]School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising 85354 , Germany

Article

Publisher Item ID: S2352-3522(22)00031-7 Publisher ID: 100232

DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2022.100232

PMC ID: 9428117

PubMed ID: 36061411

SO-VID: 85d92235-f6e5-4852-aa82-fa51f648aeb8

License:

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

History

Date received : 5 July 2022

Date revision received : 28 August 2022

Date accepted : 29 August 2022

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