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      A spatial-temporal analysis at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and its determinants: The case of Recife neighborhoods, Brazil

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          Abstract

          The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to there being a worldwide socio-economic crisis, with major impacts on developing countries. Understanding the dynamics of the disease and its driving factors, on a small spatial scale, might support strategies to control infections. This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 on neighborhoods of Recife, Brazil, for which we examine a set of drivers that combines socio-economic factors and the presence of non-stop services. A three-stage methodology was conducted by conducting a statistical and spatial analysis, including clusters and regression models. COVID-19 data were investigated concerning ten dates between April and July 2020. Hotspots of the most affected regions and their determinant effects were highlighted. We have identified that clusters of confirmed cases were carried from a well-developed neighborhood to socially deprived areas, along with the emergence of hotspots of the case-fatality rate. The influence of age-groups, income, level of education, and the access to essential services on the spread of COVID-19 was also verified. The recognition of variables that influence the spatial spread of the disease becomes vital for pinpointing the most vulnerable areas. Consequently, specific prevention actions can be developed for these places, especially in heterogeneous cities.

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          Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis

          Robert Verity, Lucy C Okell, Ilaria Dorigatti … (2020)
          Summary Background In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases. Methods We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation. Findings Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–7·6) in those aged 80 years or older. Interpretation These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death. Funding UK Medical Research Council.
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            Local Indicators of Spatial Association-LISA

            Luc Anselin (1995)
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              Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: a scoping review

              Sasmita Adhikari, Sha Meng, Yu-Ju Wu … (2020)
              Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China beginning in December 2019. As of 31 January 2020, this epidemic had spread to 19 countries with 11 791 confirmed cases, including 213 deaths. The World Health Organization has declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Methods A scoping review was conducted following the methodological framework suggested by Arksey and O’Malley. In this scoping review, 65 research articles published before 31 January 2020 were analyzed and discussed to better understand the epidemiology, causes, clinical diagnosis, prevention and control of this virus. The research domains, dates of publication, journal language, authors’ affiliations, and methodological characteristics were included in the analysis. All the findings and statements in this review regarding the outbreak are based on published information as listed in the references. Results Most of the publications were written using the English language (89.2%). The largest proportion of published articles were related to causes (38.5%) and a majority (67.7%) were published by Chinese scholars. Research articles initially focused on causes, but over time there was an increase of the articles related to prevention and control. Studies thus far have shown that the virus’ origination is in connection to a seafood market in Wuhan, but specific animal associations have not been confirmed. Reported symptoms include fever, cough, fatigue, pneumonia, headache, diarrhea, hemoptysis, and dyspnea. Preventive measures such as masks, hand hygiene practices, avoidance of public contact, case detection, contact tracing, and quarantines have been discussed as ways to reduce transmission. To date, no specific antiviral treatment has proven effective; hence, infected people primarily rely on symptomatic treatment and supportive care. Conclusions There has been a rapid surge in research in response to the outbreak of COVID-19. During this early period, published research primarily explored the epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, as well as prevention and control of the novel coronavirus. Although these studies are relevant to control the current public emergency, more high-quality research is needed to provide valid and reliable ways to manage this kind of public health emergency in both the short- and long-term.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Arthur Pimentel Gomes de Souza:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4745-6713
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draft
                Caroline Maria de Miranda Mota: Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draft
                Amanda Gadelha Ferreira Rosa: Role: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Ciro José Jardim de Figueiredo:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0442-7939
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: Writing – review & editing
                Ana Lúcia Bezerra Candeias: Role: ValidationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Fausto Cavallaro: Role: Editor
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS One
                Journal ID (publisher-id): plos
                Title: PLoS ONE
                Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203
                Publication date (Electronic): 17 May 2022
                Publication date Collection: 2022
                Publication date PMC-release: 17 May 2022
                Volume: 17
                Issue: 5
                Electronic Location Identifier: e0268538
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Programa de Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
                [2 ] Departamento de Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
                [3 ] Departamento de Engenharias, Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido, Angicos, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
                [4 ] Departamento de Engenharia Cartográfica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
                Universita degli Studi del Molise, ITALY
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4745-6713
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0442-7939
                Article
                Publisher ID: PONE-D-21-32210
                DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268538
                PMC ID: 9113566
                PubMed ID: 35580093
                SO-VID: 81f85485-4bdd-4f70-896d-858980093595
                Copyright © © 2022 Souza et al
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                Date received : 6 October 2021
                Date accepted : 30 April 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 7, Tables: 3, Pages: 22
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008132, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco;
                Award ID: UFPE 06/2020
                Award Recipient :
                This research was partially supported by the Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE- 06/2020) (website: https://www.ufpe.br). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Medical Conditions
                Subject: Infectious Diseases
                Subject: Viral Diseases
                Subject: Covid 19
                Subject: People and places
                Subject: Geographical locations
                Subject: South America
                Subject: Brazil
                Subject: Earth Sciences
                Subject: Geography
                Subject: Human Geography
                Subject: Social Geography
                Subject: Neighborhoods
                Subject: Social Sciences
                Subject: Human Geography
                Subject: Social Geography
                Subject: Neighborhoods
                Subject: Earth Sciences
                Subject: Geography
                Subject: Human Geography
                Subject: Urban Geography
                Subject: Cities
                Subject: Social Sciences
                Subject: Human Geography
                Subject: Urban Geography
                Subject: Cities
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Epidemiology
                Subject: Pandemics
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Diagnostic Medicine
                Subject: Virus Testing
                Subject: Medicine and Health Sciences
                Subject: Epidemiology
                Subject: Medical Risk Factors
                Subject: Research and Analysis Methods
                Subject: Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
                Subject: Statistical Methods
                Subject: Regression Analysis
                Subject: Physical Sciences
                Subject: Mathematics
                Subject: Statistics
                Subject: Statistical Methods
                Subject: Regression Analysis
                Custom metadata
                Data Availability The datasets analysed during the current study are available in the SEPLAG (Secretaria de Planejamento e Gestão de Pernambuco) repository, https://dados.seplag.pe.gov.br/apps/corona_dados.html.
                Outbreaks COVID-19

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized

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