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      Are older people worse off in 2040 regarding health and resources to deal with it? - Future developments in complex health problems and in the availability of resources to manage health problems in the Netherlands

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          Developing sustainable health policy requires an understanding of the future demand for health and social care. We explored the characteristics of the 65+ population in the Netherlands in 2020 and 2040, focusing on two factors that determine care needs: (1) the occurrence of complex health problems and (2) the availability of resources to manage health and care (e.g., health literacy, social support).

          Methods

          Estimations of the occurrence of complex health problems and the availability of resources for 2020 were based on registry data and patient-reported data. Estimations for 2040 were based on (a) expected demographic developments, and (b) expert opinions using a two-stage Delphi study with 26 experts from policy making, practice and research in the field of health and social care.

          Results

          The proportion of people aged 65+ with complex health problems and limited resources is expected to increase from 10% in 2020 to 12% in 2040 based on demographic developments, and to 22% in 2040 based on expert opinions. There was high consensus (>80%) that the proportion with complex health problems would be greater in 2040, and lower consensus (50%) on an increase of the proportion of those with limited resources. Developments that are expected to drive the future changes refer to changes in multimorbidity and in psychosocial status (e.g., more loneliness).

          Conclusion

          The expected increased proportion of people aged 65+ with complex health problems and limited resources together with the expected health and social care workforce shortages represent large challenges for public health and social care policy.

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          Most cited references46

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          The Delphi Technique: Making Sense of Consensus

          The Delphi technique is a widely used and accepted method for gathering data from respondents within their domain of expertise. The technique is designed as a group communication process which aims to achieve a convergence of opinion on a specific real-world issue. The Delphi process has been used in various fields of study such as program planning, needs assessment, policy determination, and resource utilization to develop a full range of alternatives, explore or expose underlying assumptions, as well as correlate judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines. The Delphi technique is well suited as a method for consensus-building by using a series of questionnaires delivered using multiple iterations to collect data from a panel of selected subjects. Subject selection, time frames for conducting and completing a study, the possibility of low response rates, and unintentionally guiding feedback from the respondent group are areas which should be considered when designing and implementing a Delphi study. Accessed 68,465 times on https://pareonline.net from August 30, 2007 to December 31, 2019. For downloads from January 1, 2020 forward, please click on the PlumX Metrics link to the right.
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            The World Health Organization (WHO) approach to healthy ageing

            Highlights • The ageing global population is the important medical and social demographic problem • WHO underlines the importance of maintaining functional ability in older age • WHO identified strategic objectives and priorities to promote healthy ageing • Healthy ageing policy implementation varies widely between individual countries
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              How should we define health?

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Public Health
                Front Public Health
                Front. Public Health
                Frontiers in Public Health
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                2296-2565
                16 June 2023
                2023
                : 11
                : 942526
                Affiliations
                [1] 1National Institute for Health and the Environment (RIVM) , Bilthoven, Netherlands
                [2] 2Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel) , Utrecht, Netherlands
                [3] 3Department of Health and Wellbeing, Windesheim University of Applied Sciences , Zwolle, Netherlands
                Author notes

                Edited by: Franziska Prütz, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany

                Reviewed by: Anne Fink, Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers (HZ), Germany; Enno Nowossadeck, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany

                *Correspondence: Fatiha Baâdoudi, Fatiha.baadoudi@ 123456rivm.nl
                Article
                10.3389/fpubh.2023.942526
                10311544
                804d6ddf-e038-4ee6-8166-36d3d134beae
                Copyright © 2023 Baâdoudi, Picavet, Hildrink, Hendrikx, Rijken and de Bruin.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 12 May 2022
                : 09 May 2023
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 2, Equations: 0, References: 47, Pages: 11, Words: 7185
                Funding
                Funded by: Ministry of Health, doi 10.13039/501100004726;
                Categories
                Public Health
                Original Research
                Custom metadata
                Aging and Public Health

                health problems,older people,resources,health care,social care,health policy

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