Ten years countdown to hepatitis C elimination in Belgium: a mathematical modeling approach

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Abstract

Background

Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a worldwide health problem. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) has set elimination targets by 2030. This study aims to examine the position of Belgium in meeting the WHO's targets by 2030.

Methods

A Markov disease progression model, constructed in Microsoft Excel, was utilized to quantify the size of the HCV-infected population, by the liver disease stages, from 2015 to 2030. Two scenarios were developed to (1) forecast the disease burden in Belgium under the 2019 Base and (2) see what is needed to achieve the WHO targets.

Results

It was estimated that the number of HCV RNA-positive individuals in Belgium in 2015 was 18,800. To achieve the WHO goals, Belgium needs to treat at least 1200 patients per year. This will only be feasible if the number of screening tests increases.

Conclusions

Belgium is on target to reach the WHO targets by 2030 but will have to make sustained efforts. However, eradicating HCV requires policy changes to significantly increase prevention, screening, and treatment, alongside public health promotion, to raise awareness among high-risk populations and health care providers.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07378-3.

Related collections

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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of chronic liver disease, with approximately 71 million chronically infected individuals worldwide. Clinical care for patients with HCV-related liver disease has advanced considerably thanks to an enhanced understanding of the pathophysiology of the disease, as well as developments in diagnostic procedures and improvements in therapy and prevention. These therapies make it possible to eliminate hepatitis C as a major public health threat, as per the World Health Organization target, although the timeline and feasibility vary from region to region. These European Association for the Study of the Liver recommendations on treatment of hepatitis C describe the optimal management of patients with recently acquired and chronic HCV infections in 2020 and onwards.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Dana Busschots:

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0887-4119

dana.busschots@uhasselt.be

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Infect Dis

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMC Infect Dis

Title: BMC Infectious Diseases

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 1471-2334

Publication date (Electronic): 22 April 2022

Publication date PMC-release: 22 April 2022

Publication date Collection: 2022

Volume: 22

Electronic Location Identifier: 397

Affiliations

[1 ]GRID grid.12155.32, ISNI 0000 0001 0604 5662, Faculty of Medicine and Life Sciences, , Hasselt University, ; Diepenbeek, Martelarenlaan 42, 3500 Hasselt, Belgium

[2 ]GRID grid.470040.7, ISNI 0000 0004 0612 7379, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, , Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ; Genk, Belgium

[3 ]GRID grid.411414.5, ISNI 0000 0004 0626 3418, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, , Antwerp University Hospital, ; Antwerp, Belgium

[4 ]GRID grid.497618.5, ISNI 0000 0004 5998 813X, Center for Disease Analysis, ; Lafayette, CO USA

[5 ]GRID grid.410569.f, ISNI 0000 0004 0626 3338, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, , University Hospitals KU Leuven, ; Leuven, Belgium

[6 ]GRID grid.489075.7, ISNI 0000 0001 2287 089X, National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance (NIHDI), ; Brussels, Belgium

[7 ]GRID grid.4989.c, ISNI 0000 0001 2348 0746, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), ; Brussels, Belgium

[8 ]GRID grid.5284.b, ISNI 0000 0001 0790 3681, Laboratory of Experimental Medicine and Pediatrics, , University of Antwerp, ; Antwerp, Belgium

Author information

Dana Busschots http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0887-4119

Article

Publisher ID: 7378

DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07378-3

PMC ID: 9026052

PubMed ID: 35459120

SO-VID: 7fc17609-f234-4dca-9bc9-ed4fe2e0fa10

License:

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