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      La Niña forces unprecedented Leeuwin Current warming in 2011

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          Abstract

          Unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were observed off the west coast of Australia in February–March 2011. Peak SST during a 2-week period were 5°C warmer than normal, causing widespread coral bleaching and fish kills. Understanding the climatic drivers of this extreme event, which we dub “Ningaloo Niño”, is crucial for predicting similar events under the influence of global warming. Here we use observational data and numerical models to demonstrate that the extreme warming was mostly driven by an unseasonable surge of the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current in austral summer, which transported anomalously warm water southward along the coast. The unusual intensification of the Leeuwin Current was forced remotely by oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections associated with the extraordinary 2010–2011 La Niña. The amplitude of the warming was boosted by both multi-decadal trends in the Pacific toward more La Niña-like conditions and intraseasonal variations in the Indian Ocean.

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          Ecological effects of climate fluctuations.

          Nils Stenseth, Atle Mysterud, Geir Ottersen … (2002)
          Climate influences a variety of ecological processes. These effects operate through local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, and ocean currents, as well as interactions among these. In the temperate zone, local variations in weather are often coupled over large geographic areas through the transient behavior of atmospheric planetary-scale waves. These variations drive temporally and spatially averaged exchanges of heat, momentum, and water vapor that ultimately determine growth, recruitment, and migration patterns. Recently, there have been several studies of the impact of large-scale climatic forcing on ecological systems. We review how two of the best-known climate phenomena-the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation-affect ecological patterns and processes in both marine and terrestrial systems.
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            Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing.

            Gabriel A Vecchi, Brian J Soden, Andrew Wittenberg … (2006)
            Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean--driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east--known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.
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              Turning up the Heat: Increasing Temperature and Coral Bleaching at the High Latitude Coral Reefs of the Houtman Abrolhos Islands

              DAVID A. ABDO, Lynda Bellchambers, Scott N. Evans (2012)
              Background Coral reefs face increasing pressures particularly when on the edge of their distributions. The Houtman Abrolhos Islands (Abrolhos) are the southernmost coral reef system in the Indian Ocean, and one of the highest latitude reefs in the world. These reefs have a unique mix of tropical and temperate marine fauna and flora and support 184 species of coral, dominated by Acropora species. A significant La Niña event during 2011 produced anomalous conditions of increased temperature along the whole Western Australian coastline, producing the first-recorded widespread bleaching of corals at the Abrolhos. Methodology/ Principal Findings We examined long term trends in the marine climate at the Abrolhos using historical sea surface temperature data (HadISST data set) from 1900–2011. In addition in situ water temperature data for the Abrolhos (from data loggers installed in 2008, across four island groups) were used to determine temperature exposure profiles. Coupled with the results of coral cover surveys conducted annually since 2007; we calculated bleaching thresholds for monitoring sites across the four Abrolhos groups. Conclusions/ Significance In situ temperature data revealed maximum daily water temperatures reached 29.54°C in March 2011 which is 4.2°C above mean maximum daily temperatures (2008–2010). The level of bleaching varied across sites with an average of ∼12% of corals bleached. Mortality was high, with a mean ∼50% following the 2011 bleaching event. Prior to 2011, summer temperatures reached a mean (across all monitoring sites) of 25.1°C for 2.5 days. However, in 2011 temperatures reached a mean of 28.1°C for 3.3 days. Longer term trends (1900–2011) showed mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by 0.01°C per annum. Long-term temperature data along with short-term peaks in 2011, outline the potential for corals to be exposed to more frequent bleaching risk with consequences for this high latitude coral reef system at the edge of its distribution.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Sci Rep
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Sci Rep
                Title: Scientific Reports
                Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
                ISSN (Electronic): 2045-2322
                Publication date (Electronic): 14 February 2013
                Publication date Collection: 2013
                Volume: 3
                Electronic Location Identifier: 1277
                Affiliations
                [1 ]CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research , Floreat, Western Australia, Australia
                [2 ]Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , Seattle, Washington, USA
                [3 ]International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii , Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
                [4 ]Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego , La Jolla, California, USA
                Author notes
                Article
                Publisher Item ID: srep01277
                DOI: 10.1038/srep01277
                PMC ID: 3572450
                PubMed ID: 23429502
                SO-VID: 7c3b84de-aeea-40d1-82ef-394d6dba1c34
                Copyright © Copyright © 2013, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
                License:

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/

                History
                Date received : 01 October 2012
                Date accepted : 25 January 2013
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                Subject: Article

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