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      Integrating tsunami risk assessments in development planning: lessons from Western India

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          Abstract

          A natural, if idealised, picture of the role of risk assessments in planning sees decision-makers drawing on the risk projections provided by natural and social scientific models and fashioning policies or plans that maximise expected benefit relative to this information. In this paper we draw on our study of the use tsunami science in development planning in Western India to identify ways in which this idealised picture fails to reflect important difficulties encountered by both the science and policy domains, including the representation and communication of scientific uncertainty and the management of this uncertainty within the planning system. We highlight aspects of the management of these uncertainties pose pressing problems and make some suggestions as to how they might be resolved.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Title: UCL Open: Environment Preprint
          Publisher: UCL Press
          Publication date (Electronic preprint): 17 December 2019
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method, The London School of Economics and Political Science.
          [2 ] Department of Statistical Science, University College London
          [3 ] Indian Institute for Human Settlements
          [4 ] The Bartlett Development Planning Unit, University College London
          Article
          DOI: 10.14324/111.444/000026.v1

          License:

          This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

          Funding
          NERC-AHRC-ESRC NE/P016367/1

          Data availability:

          ScienceOpen disciplines: Urban development, Applied probability & Statistics, General earth science, Epistemology

          Keywords: Sustainable and resilient cities, Environmental policy and practice, Environmental science, disaster, India, modelling, development planning, risk assessment, hazard, tsunami, Statistics

          Comments

          wrote:

          Decision Date: 31/7/2020

          Handling Editor: Dan Osborn

          The Handling Editor requested revisions; the article has been returned to the authors to make this revision.

          2020-09-17 12:56 UTC
          +1
          wrote:

          Decision Date: 20/12/2019

          Handling Editor: Dan Osborn

          This article is a preprint article and has not been peer-reviewed. It is under consideration following submission to UCL Open: Environment Preprint for open peer review.

          2020-09-17 12:55 UTC
          +1
          wrote:

          --- the authors must account for the fundamental comment about data and information contained in the remarks of Reviewer 2. The paper needs to sound less like a popular article and contain enough data to qualify as a research paper. If the authors intend this to be a commentary article then they need to develop the article further in line with, or through acknowledging the work of the many international bodies who deal with issues linked to tsunamis and other extreme events. That does not of curse preclude use of data of diagrams etc that might aid understanding,

           

          --- Reviewer 1 questions the choice of words at several points in the text and implies that more attention is needed to these parts of the paper to clarify understanding. All the points referred to must be addressed if the paper is to be fully published. His points on aligning the paper with international efforts or, alternatively, using these as a broader context for the paper need to be addressed.

          On behal of Dan Osborn, 

          Editor-in-Chief

          2020-07-31 12:22 UTC
          +1
          wrote:

          Comments received from Aromar Revi: 

          It could have said a little more about how we can reduce uncertainty in at least a few dimensions. Else, there is limited space for a research agenda to be built. For example, there is a fair degree that can be learned/borrowed from storm surge inundation modeling and responses along the western coast and most certainly the eastern coast. There are masses of work done on both modeling and implementation around NCRMP in Gujarat. 

          2020-01-06 17:45 UTC
          +1
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