Richard Bradley 1 , Serge Guillas 2 , Garima Jain 3 , Cassidy Johnson , 4 , Teja Malladi 3 , Julia Wesely 4
17 December 2019
UCL Open: Environment Preprint
tsunami, hazard, risk assessment, development planning, modelling, India, disaster, Environmental science, Environmental policy and practice, Statistics, Sustainable and resilient cities
A natural, if idealised, picture of the role of risk assessments in planning sees decision-makers drawing on the risk projections provided by natural and social scientific models and fashioning policies or plans that maximise expected benefit relative to this information. In this paper we draw on our study of the use tsunami science in development planning in Western India to identify ways in which this idealised picture fails to reflect important difficulties encountered by both the science and policy domains, including the representation and communication of scientific uncertainty and the management of this uncertainty within the planning system. We highlight aspects of the management of these uncertainties pose pressing problems and make some suggestions as to how they might be resolved.
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