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      Prospective analysis of soybean distribution in the Tocantins state considering climate change scenarios Translated title: Análise prospectiva da distribuição da soja no estado do Tocantins, considerando-se cenários de mudanças climáticas

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          Abstract

          ABSTRACT Soybean is one of the agroenergy crops of greatest supply and demand in the Brazilian economy. Even though positive slopes in the productivity curves are constantly perceptible, the demands for arable land are evolving wildly, inevitably promoting deforestation actions and deleterious effects on the natural biogeochemical cycles, such as the carbon cycle. Several environmental models are used to explain these complex phenomena, whose variables change spatially and temporally as a function of economic, social and natural factors. Therefore, this study aimed at prospecting the soybean cultivation area using a territorial dynamics model (Dinamica EGO), in regions where sustainable use conservation units are located in the Tocantins state, considering different climate risk scenarios based on the water requirement satisfaction indexes (WRSI), calculated using daily average rainfall and temperature data from the MIROC5 global climate model. The WRSI contributed to a greater exploitation of natural resources around the environmental preservation areas of Ilha do Bananal/ Cantão, Lago de Palmas and Serra do Lajeado. Furthermore, a possible decrease in the soybean area in some recognized producing centers was prospected, as well as a scenario of greater distancing of this species cultivated areas, in a near future, from the mosaic of conservation units of Jalapão, which has become of high climatic risk for the soybean grain yields usually demanded by the market.

          Translated abstract

          RESUMO A soja é uma das culturas agroenergéticas de maior oferta e procura na economia brasileira. Embora sejam constantemente perceptíveis inclinações positivas nas curvas de produtividade, as exigências por terras cultiváveis evoluem desenfreadamente, inevitavelmente promovendo ações de desmatamento e agravos deletérios nos ciclos biogeoquímicos naturais, como no ciclo do carbono. Uma série de modelos ambientais são utilizados para explicar esses fenômenos complexos, cujas variáveis se modificam espacial e temporalmente em função de fatores econômicos, sociais e naturais. Neste intuito, almejou-se a prospecção da área de cultivo da soja por intermédio de um modelo de dinâmica territorial (Dinamica EGO), em regiões onde localizam-se unidades de conservação de uso sustentável no estado do Tocantins, considerando-se cenários de riscos climáticos fundamentados nos índices de satisfação das necessidades de água (ISNA), calculados a partir dos dados de precipitação e temperatura médias diárias do modelo climático global MIROC5. Os ISNA influenciaram em uma maior exploração dos recursos naturais no entorno das áreas de preservação ambiental da Ilha do Bananal/Cantão, Lago de Palmas e Serra do Lajeado. Prospectou-se, também, uma possível redução de área de soja em alguns centros produtores reconhecidos, bem como um cenário de maior distanciamento das áreas cultivadas da espécie, em um futuro próximo, do mosaico de unidades de conservação do Jalapão, que se tornou de alto risco climático para os rendimentos em grãos de soja normalmente demandados pelo mercado.

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          Most cited references37

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          Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model.

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                pat
                Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical
                Pesqui. Agropecu. Trop.
                Escola de Agronomia/UFG (Goiânia, GO, Brazil )
                1517-6398
                1983-4063
                2022
                : 52
                : e72969
                Affiliations
                [1] Palmas orgnameUniversidade Federal do Tocantins Brazil andrema@ 123456uft.edu.br
                Article
                S1983-40632022000100813 S1983-4063(22)05200000813
                10.1590/1983-40632022v5272969
                75111dfe-2c74-4fef-8169-b94c5a43c052

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 31 May 2022
                : 10 August 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 37, Pages: 0
                Product

                SciELO Brazil

                Categories
                Special Supplement: Climate Change in Agriculture/Review Article

                conservation units,climate risks,unidades de conservação,Water availability,Disponibilidade hídrica,riscos climáticos

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