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      Agricultural plastic pollution in China: Sources, supply chain drivers, and mitigation strategies

      , , , , ,
      Sustainable Horizons
      Elsevier BV

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          Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture.

          Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100-110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ~1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO(2)-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ~3 Gt y(-1) and N use ~250 Mt y(-1) by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ~0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ~1 Gt y(-1), and global N use of ~225 Mt y(-1). Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts.
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            Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution

            Plastic pollution is a planetary threat, affecting nearly every marine and freshwater ecosystem globally. In response, multilevel mitigation strategies are being adopted but with a lack of quantitative assessment of how such strategies reduce plastic emissions. We assessed the impact of three broad management strategies, plastic waste reduction, waste management, and environmental recovery, at different levels of effort to estimate plastic emissions to 2030 for 173 countries. We estimate that 19 to 23 million metric tons, or 11%, of plastic waste generated globally in 2016 entered aquatic ecosystems. Considering the ambitious commitments currently set by governments, annual emissions may reach up to 53 million metric tons per year by 2030. To reduce emissions to a level well below this prediction, extraordinary efforts to transform the global plastics economy are needed.
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              The distribution of microplastics in soil aggregate fractions in southwestern China

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                (View ORCID Profile)
                Journal
                Sustainable Horizons
                Sustainable Horizons
                Elsevier BV
                27727378
                September 2024
                September 2024
                : 11
                : 100102
                Article
                10.1016/j.horiz.2024.100102
                741d5c4c-524e-4752-8e99-8315d8f4abb4
                © 2024

                https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

                https://www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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