Long-term results (7 to 10 years) of endoscopic papillotomy for choledocholithiasis. Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors for the recurrence of biliary symptoms

Abstract

The long-term outcome after endoscopic papillotomy is poorly defined. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term results of this method in the treatment of common duct calculi and to determine which prognostic factors are associated with the relapse of biliary symptoms. Between 1985 and 1988, 223 consecutive (149 women, mean age 67.9 years) patients underwent endoscopic papillotomy for duct stones; 127 had already undergone cholecystectomy or underwent this operation during the same hospitalization. Follow-up data were obtained retrospectively from the patients and patients' relatives and general practitioners. The procedure was successful in 217 of 223 cases (97%), of which 203 were followed-up; 2 patients died in the first month after treatment (0.89%). Mean follow-up for the 201 patients was 6.2 years, during which 31 relapsed (15%). Three significant prognostic factors for late complications were identified in a multivariate analysis. The recurrence rate of biliary symptoms in patients who were left with an in situ gallbladder was 20.2%, and 11% for those whose gallbladder was removed (p = 0.04). Patients with a bile duct 15 mm or greater in diameter were more prone to recurrence of symptoms than those with a bile duct 10 mm or less in diameter (41% vs. 10%, p = 0.025) and were especially at higher risk to develop recurrent stones (19.5% vs. 4.9%, p = 0.019). Stone recurrence, but not biliary symptoms as a whole, was more frequent in patients with a peripapillary diverticulum (p = 0.035). The long-term results of endoscopic papillotomy are comparable with those of surgical techniques. The prognostic factors associated with relapse of biliary symptoms as a whole are gallbladder left in situ and choledochal diameter. Bile duct size and peripapillary diverticula are associated with recurrent bile duct stones.