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      Prevalence, mortality and risk factors associated with very low birth weight preterm infants: an analysis of 33 years ☆☆ Translated title: Prevalência, mortalidade e fatores de risco associados ao prematuro de muito baixo peso ao nascer: uma análise de 33 anos

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          Abstract

          Objective

          To assess the prevalence, mortality and risk factors associated with the birth of very low birth weight preterm infants over a period of 33 years.

          Methods

          Four cross-sectional studies were analyzed, using data from perinatal interviews of birth cohorts in the city of Pelotas collected in 1982, 1993, 2004, and 2015. Based on perinatal questionnaires, anthropometric measurements of newborns and death certificates were analyzed to obtain the prevalence rate, neonatal mortality, and risk factors (maternal age, income and type of delivery) for very low birth weight.

          Results

          A total of 19,625 newborns were included in the study. In the years 1982, 1993, 2004, and 2015, there were, respectively, 5909, 5232, 4226, and 4258 births. The prevalence of very low birth weight was, respectively, 1.1% ( n = 64), 0.9% ( n = 46), 1.4% ( n = 61), and 1.3% ( n = 54). There was no statistical evidence of an increasing trend over time ( p = 0.11). Among the risk factors, family income in the three poorest quintiles was associated with prevalence rates that were approximately twice as high as in the richest quintile ( p = 0.003). Mortality per 1000 live births for neonates weighing <1500 g decreased from 688 to 259 per thousand from 1982 to 2015 ( p < 0.001), but still represented 61% of neonatal deaths in the latter year.

          Conclusion

          Although mortality in very low birth weight decreased by more than 60% in recent years, this group still contributes with more than half of neonatal deaths. Low family income remains an important risk factor in this scenario.

          Resumo

          Objetivo

          Verificar a prevalência, mortalidade e fatores de risco associados aos nascimentos de prematuros de muito baixo peso ao nascer (MBPN) ao longo de 33 anos.

          Métodos

          Série de quatro estudos transversais utilizando dados das entrevistas perinatais das coortes de nascimento da cidade de Pelotas coletados em 1982, 1993, 2004 e 2015. A partir de questionários perinatais, medidas antropométricas dos recém-nascidos e certidões de óbito, foram analisadas a prevalência, mortalidade neonatal e fatores de risco (idade materna, renda e tipo de parto) para prematuros de muito baixo peso ao nascer.

          Resultados

          Foram incluídos no estudo 19.625 recém-nascidos. Em 1982, 1993, 2004 e 2015 ocorreram, respectivamente, 5.909, 5.232, 4.226 e 4.258 nascimentos. A prevalência de prematuros de muito baixo peso ao nascer naqueles anos foi, respectivamente, de 1,1% (n = 64), 0,9% (n = 46), 1,4% (n = 61) e 1,3% (n = 54). A tendência de aumento durante o período não alcançou significância estatística (p = 0,11). Entre os fatores de risco, a renda familiar nos três quintis mais pobres esteve associada a prevalências cerca de duas vezes mais altas do que no quintil mais rico (p = 0,003). A mortalidade por 1.000 nascidos vivos para os neonatos com peso < 1500 g caiu de 688 para 259 por mil ao longo dos anos (p < 0,001), mas ainda representa 61% dos óbitos neonatais em 2015.

          Conclusão

          Embora a mortalidade nos prematuros de muito baixo peso ao nascer tenha diminuído em mais de 60% nos últimos anos, esse grupo ainda contribui com mais da metade dos óbitos neonatais. A baixa renda familiar continua a ser fator de risco importante nesse cenário.

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          Most cited references27

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          National, regional, and worldwide estimates of preterm birth rates in the year 2010 with time trends since 1990 for selected countries: a systematic analysis and implications.

          Preterm birth is the second largest direct cause of child deaths in children younger than 5 years. Yet, data regarding preterm birth (<37 completed weeks of gestation) are not routinely collected by UN agencies, and no systematic country estimates nor time trend analyses have been done. We report worldwide, regional, and national estimates of preterm birth rates for 184 countries in 2010 with time trends for selected countries, and provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. We assessed various data sources according to prespecified inclusion criteria. National Registries (563 datapoints, 51 countries), Reproductive Health Surveys (13 datapoints, eight countries), and studies identified through systematic searches and unpublished data (162 datapoints, 40 countries) were included. 55 countries submitted additional data during WHO's country consultation process. For 13 countries with adequate quality and quantity of data, we estimated preterm birth rates using country-level loess regression for 2010. For 171 countries, two regional multilevel statistical models were developed to estimate preterm birth rates for 2010. We estimated time trends from 1990 to 2010 for 65 countries with reliable time trend data and more than 10,000 livebirths per year. We calculated uncertainty ranges for all countries. In 2010, an estimated 14·9 million babies (uncertainty range 12·3-18·1 million) were born preterm, 11·1% of all livebirths worldwide, ranging from about 5% in several European countries to 18% in some African countries. More than 60% of preterm babies were born in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where 52% of the global livebirths occur. Preterm birth also affects rich countries, for example, USA has high rates and is one of the ten countries with the highest numbers of preterm births. Of the 65 countries with estimated time trends, only three (Croatia, Ecuador, and Estonia), had reduced preterm birth rates 1990-2010. The burden of preterm birth is substantial and is increasing in those regions with reliable data. Improved recording of all pregnancy outcomes and standard application of preterm definitions is important. We recommend the addition of a data-quality indicator of the per cent of all live preterm births that are under 28 weeks' gestation. Distinguishing preterm births that are spontaneous from those that are provider-initiated is important to monitor trends associated with increased caesarean sections. Rapid scale up of basic interventions could accelerate progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival and beyond. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through grants to Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) and Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme; March of Dimes; the Partnership for Maternal Newborn and Childe Health; and WHO, Department of Reproductive Health and Research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            Alternatives for logistic regression in cross-sectional studies: an empirical comparison of models that directly estimate the prevalence ratio

            Background Cross-sectional studies with binary outcomes analyzed by logistic regression are frequent in the epidemiological literature. However, the odds ratio can importantly overestimate the prevalence ratio, the measure of choice in these studies. Also, controlling for confounding is not equivalent for the two measures. In this paper we explore alternatives for modeling data of such studies with techniques that directly estimate the prevalence ratio. Methods We compared Cox regression with constant time at risk, Poisson regression and log-binomial regression against the standard Mantel-Haenszel estimators. Models with robust variance estimators in Cox and Poisson regressions and variance corrected by the scale parameter in Poisson regression were also evaluated. Results Three outcomes, from a cross-sectional study carried out in Pelotas, Brazil, with different levels of prevalence were explored: weight-for-age deficit (4%), asthma (31%) and mother in a paid job (52%). Unadjusted Cox/Poisson regression and Poisson regression with scale parameter adjusted by deviance performed worst in terms of interval estimates. Poisson regression with scale parameter adjusted by χ2 showed variable performance depending on the outcome prevalence. Cox/Poisson regression with robust variance, and log-binomial regression performed equally well when the model was correctly specified. Conclusions Cox or Poisson regression with robust variance and log-binomial regression provide correct estimates and are a better alternative for the analysis of cross-sectional studies with binary outcomes than logistic regression, since the prevalence ratio is more interpretable and easier to communicate to non-specialists than the odds ratio. However, precautions are needed to avoid estimation problems in specific situations.
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              International standards for newborn weight, length, and head circumference by gestational age and sex: the Newborn Cross-Sectional Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project.

              In 2006, WHO published international growth standards for children younger than 5 years, which are now accepted worldwide. In the INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project, our aim was to complement them by developing international standards for fetuses, newborn infants, and the postnatal growth period of preterm infants. INTERGROWTH-21(st) is a population-based project that assessed fetal growth and newborn size in eight geographically defined urban populations. These groups were selected because most of the health and nutrition needs of mothers were met, adequate antenatal care was provided, and there were no major environmental constraints on growth. As part of the Newborn Cross-Sectional Study (NCSS), a component of INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project, we measured weight, length, and head circumference in all newborn infants, in addition to collecting data prospectively for pregnancy and the perinatal period. To construct the newborn standards, we selected all pregnancies in women meeting (in addition to the underlying population characteristics) strict individual eligibility criteria for a population at low risk of impaired fetal growth (labelled the NCSS prescriptive subpopulation). Women had a reliable ultrasound estimate of gestational age using crown-rump length before 14 weeks of gestation or biparietal diameter if antenatal care started between 14 weeks and 24 weeks or less of gestation. Newborn anthropometric measures were obtained within 12 h of birth by identically trained anthropometric teams using the same equipment at all sites. Fractional polynomials assuming a skewed t distribution were used to estimate the fitted centiles. We identified 20,486 (35%) eligible women from the 59,137 pregnant women enrolled in NCSS between May 14, 2009, and Aug 2, 2013. We calculated sex-specific observed and smoothed centiles for weight, length, and head circumference for gestational age at birth. The observed and smoothed centiles were almost identical. We present the 3rd, 10th, 50th, 90th, and 97th centile curves according to gestational age and sex. We have developed, for routine clinical practice, international anthropometric standards to assess newborn size that are intended to complement the WHO Child Growth Standards and allow comparisons across multiethnic populations. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                J Pediatr (Rio J)
                J Pediatr (Rio J)
                Jornal de Pediatria
                Elsevier
                0021-7557
                1678-4782
                12 December 2018
                May-Jun 2020
                12 December 2018
                : 96
                : 3
                : 327-332
                Affiliations
                [a ]Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Hospital São Lucas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Pediatria e Saúde da Criança, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
                [b ]Universidade Federal de Pelotas (UFPel), Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Pelotas, RS, Brazil
                [c ]University of Toronto, Center for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children and Department of Pediatrics, Toronto, Canada
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. cristiantonial@ 123456gmail.com
                [1]

                Appendix A lists all the authors of the article..

                Article
                S0021-7557(18)30631-4
                10.1016/j.jped.2018.10.011
                9432241
                30550758
                5c010e71-cf14-4cea-a867-8db39bede614
                © 2018 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda.

                This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

                History
                : 26 May 2018
                : 17 October 2018
                Categories
                Original Article

                preterm,very low birth weight,cohort studies,risk factors,prevalence,mortality,prematuro,muito baixo peso,estudos de coorte,fator de risco,prevalência,mortalidade

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