Effectiveness of poliovirus vaccines against circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis in Nigeria between 2017 and 2022: a case-control study

An outbreak of paralytic poliomyelitis occurred in the Dominican Republic (13 confirmed cases) and Haiti (8 confirmed cases, including 2 fatal cases) during 2000-2001. All but one of the patients were either unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated children, and cases occurred in communities with very low (7 to 40%) rates of coverage with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). The outbreak was associated with the circulation of a derivative of the type 1 OPV strain, probably originating from a single OPV dose given in 1998-1999. The vaccine-derived poliovirus associated with the outbreak had biological properties indistinguishable from those of wild poliovirus.

The feasibility of global polio eradication is being questioned as a result of continued transmission in a few localities that act as sources for outbreaks elsewhere. Perhaps the greatest challenge is in India, where transmission has persisted in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar despite high coverage with multiple doses of vaccine. We estimate key parameters governing the seasonal epidemics in these areas and show that high population density and poor sanitation cause persistence by not only facilitating transmission of poliovirus but also severely compromising the efficacy of the trivalent vaccine. We analyze strategies to counteract this and show that switching to monovalent vaccine may finally interrupt virus transmission.