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      Bayesian analyses of direct radiocarbon dates reveal geographic variations in the rate of rice farming dispersal in prehistoric Japan

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          Abstract

          The adoption of rice farming during the first millennium BC was a turning point in Japanese prehistory, defining the subsequent cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation in the archipelago. Here, we use a suite of novel Bayesian techniques to estimate the regional rates of dispersal and arrival time of rice farming using radiocarbon dates on charred rice remains. Our results indicate substantial variations in the rate of dispersal of rice within the Japanese islands, hinting at the presence of a mixture of demic and cultural diffusion, geographic variations in the suitability of its cultivation, and the possible role of existing social networks in facilitating or hindering the adoption of the new subsistence economy.

          Abstract

          Abstract

          The adoption of rice farming in prehistoric Japan was characterized by regional episodes of slowdowns and accelerations.

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          Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences

          Andrew Gelman, Donald B Rubin (1992)
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            THE INTCAL20 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION CURVE (0–55 CAL kBP)

            Paula J. Reimer, William E. N. Austin, Edouard Bard … (2020)
            Radiocarbon ( 14 C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14 C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14 C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14 C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14 C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14 C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
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              Radiocarbon Calibration and Analysis of Stratigraphy: The OxCal Program

              Christopher Bronk Ramsey (1995)
              People usually study the chronologies of archaeological sites and geological sequences using many different kinds of evidence, taking into account calibrated radiocarbon dates, other dating methods and stratigraphic information. Many individual case studies demonstrate the value of using statistical methods to combine these different types of information. I have developed a computer program, OxCal, running under Windows 3.1 (for IBM PCs), that will perform both 14C calibration and calculate what extra information can be gained from stratigraphic evidence. The program can perform automatic wiggle matches and calculate probability distributions for samples in sequences and phases. The program is written in C++ and uses Bayesian statistics and Gibbs sampling for the calculations. The program is very easy to use, both for simple calibration and complex site analysis, and will produce graphical output from virtually any printer.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Enrico R. Crema:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6727-5138
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Chris J. Stevens:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2669-5715
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: ResourcesRole: VisualizationRole: Writing - original draftRole: Writing - review & editing
                Shinya Shoda:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9525-3710
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: Writing - review & editing
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Sci Adv
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Sci Adv
                Journal ID (publisher-id): sciadv
                Journal ID (hwp): advances
                Title: Science Advances
                Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
                ISSN (Electronic): 2375-2548
                Publication date Collection: September 2022
                Publication date (Electronic, pub): 21 September 2022
                Volume: 8
                Issue: 38
                Electronic Location Identifier: eadc9171
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ]Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
                [ 2 ]McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
                [ 3 ]Nara National Research Institute for Cultural Properties, Nara, Japan.
                [ 4 ]BioArCh, University of York, York, UK.
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. Email: erc62@ 123456cam.ac.uk
                [†]

                These authors contributed equally to this work.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6727-5138
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2669-5715
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9525-3710
                Article
                Publisher ID: adc9171
                DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adc9171
                PMC ID: 9491708
                PubMed ID: 36129978
                SO-VID: 5716d942-0dd1-4b47-b9de-292de9cfeb35
                Copyright © Copyright © 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).
                License:

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                Date received : 09 May 2022
                Date accepted : 04 August 2022
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663, H2020 European Research Council;
                Award ID: 801953
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences
                Subject: SciAdv r-articles
                Subject: Anthropology
                Subject: Social Sciences
                Subject: Anthropology
                Custom metadata
                Copyeditor Adrienne Del Mundo

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