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      The Italian value chain in the pandemic: the input–output impact of Covid-19 lockdown

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          Abstract

          This paper investigates the role of the domestic value chain in transmitting the economic impact of Covid-19 lockdown measures. By employing techniques of complex networks analysis and input–output traditional tools, the study identifies those sectors that are key in the complex structure of the Italian supply chain and provides different rankings of the most ‘systemically important’ industries involved in the Covid-19 lockdown. The results suggest that by stopping the production process of many key sectors, the lockdown has led to a drop in input and output that, in turn, has generated a lock of about 52% of total circulating value added, 30% of which has been locked within indirect value chains. Further, by adding sectoral physical proximity indexes to the scenarios analysis, the method developed here provides a tool to guide governments in designing safe and efficient reopening policies.

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          The online version of this article (10.1007/s40812-020-00164-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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          The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities.

          Martin Bootsma, Neil M Ferguson (2007)
          During the 1918 influenza pandemic, the U.S., unlike Europe, put considerable effort into public health interventions. There was also more geographic variation in the autumn wave of the pandemic in the U.S. compared with Europe, with some cities seeing only a single large peak in mortality and others seeing double-peaked epidemics. Here we examine whether differences in the public health measures adopted by different cities can explain the variation in epidemic patterns and overall mortality observed. We show that city-specific per-capita excess mortality in 1918 was significantly correlated with 1917 per-capita mortality, indicating some intrinsic variation in overall mortality, perhaps related to sociodemographic factors. In the subset of 23 cities for which we had partial data on the timing of interventions, an even stronger correlation was found between excess mortality and how early in the epidemic interventions were introduced. We then fitted an epidemic model to weekly mortality in 16 cities with nearly complete intervention-timing data and estimated the impact of interventions. The model reproduced the observed epidemic patterns well. In line with theoretical arguments, we found the time-limited interventions used reduced total mortality only moderately (perhaps 10-30%), and that the impact was often very limited because of interventions being introduced too late and lifted too early. San Francisco, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Kansas City had the most effective interventions, reducing transmission rates by up to 30-50%. Our analysis also suggests that individuals reactively reduced their contact rates in response to high levels of mortality during the pandemic.
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            The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations

            (2012)
            Article 0 comments Cited 161 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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              World Input-Output Network

              Federica Cerina, Zhen Zhu, Alessandro Chessa … (2015)
              Production systems, traditionally analyzed as almost independent national systems, are increasingly connected on a global scale. Only recently becoming available, the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) is one of the first efforts to construct the global multi-regional input-output (GMRIO) tables. By viewing the world input-output system as an interdependent network where the nodes are the individual industries in different economies and the edges are the monetary goods flows between industries, we analyze respectively the global, regional, and local network properties of the so-called world input-output network (WION) and document its evolution over time. At global level, we find that the industries are highly but asymmetrically connected, which implies that micro shocks can lead to macro fluctuations. At regional level, we find that the world production is still operated nationally or at most regionally as the communities detected are either individual economies or geographically well defined regions. Finally, at local level, for each industry we compare the network-based measures with the traditional methods of backward linkages. We find that the network-based measures such as PageRank centrality and community coreness measure can give valuable insights into identifying the key industries.
              Article 0 comments Cited 41 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Raffaele Giammetti:
                ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4299-152X
                r.giammetti@univpm.it
                Luca Papi:
                ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4782-0837
                l.papi@univpm.it
                Désirée Teobaldelli:
                ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4264-5021
                desiree.teobaldelli@uniurb.it
                Davide Ticchi:
                ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4166-1692
                d.ticchi@univpm.it
                Journal
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J. Ind. Bus. Econ.
                Title: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics
                Publisher: Springer International Publishing (Cham )
                ISSN (Print): 0391-2078
                ISSN (Electronic): 1972-4977
                Publication date (Electronic): 6 July 2020
                Publication date PMC-release: 6 July 2020
                Pages: 1-15
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.7010.6, ISNI 0000 0001 1017 3210, Università Politecnica Delle Marche, ; Ancona, Italy
                [2 ]GRID grid.12711.34, ISNI 0000 0001 2369 7670, Università Di Urbino, ; Urbino, Italy
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4299-152X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4782-0837
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4264-5021
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4166-1692
                Article
                Publisher ID: 164
                DOI: 10.1007/s40812-020-00164-9
                PMC ID: 7335925
                SO-VID: 54400e0c-f848-457c-a92c-7c40a476bb28
                Copyright © © The Author(s) 2020
                License:

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                Date received : 31 May 2020
                Date revision received : 28 June 2020
                Date accepted : 30 June 2020
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                Keywords: covid-19,lockdown,global value chains,production networks,c67,r15,f13,f14,o21
                Data availability:
                Keywords: covid-19, lockdown, global value chains, production networks, c67, r15, f13, f14, o21

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