The Beginning of Senior Career in Team Sport Is Affected by Relative Age Effect

Expertise has been extensively studied in several sports over recent years. The specificities of how excellence is achieved in Association Football, a sport practiced worldwide, are being repeatedly investigated by many researchers through a variety of approaches and scientific disciplines.

In this study, we assessed whether contextual factors related to where or when an athlete is born influence their likelihood of playing professional sport. The birthplace and birth month of all American players in the National Hockey League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, and Professional Golfer's Association, and all Canadian players in the National Hockey League were collected from official websites. Monte Carlo simulations were used to verify if the birthplace of these professional athletes deviated in any systematic way from the official census population distribution, and chi-square analyses were conducted to determine whether the players' birth months were evenly distributed throughout the year. Results showed a birthplace bias towards smaller cities, with professional athletes being over-represented in cities of less than 500,000 and under-represented in cities of 500,000 and over. A birth month/relative age effect (in the form of a distinct bias towards elite athletes being relatively older than their peers) was found for hockey and baseball but not for basketball and golf. Comparative analyses suggested that contextual factors associated with place of birth contribute more influentially to the achievement of an elite level of sport performance than does relative age and that these factors are essentially independent in their influences on expertise development.

The relative age effect (RAE) and its relationships with maturation, anthropometry, and physical performance characteristics were examined across a representative sample of English youth soccer development programmes. Birth dates of 1,212 players, chronologically age-grouped (i.e., U9’s-U18’s), representing 17 professional clubs (i.e., playing in Leagues 1 & 2) were obtained and categorised into relative age quartiles from the start of the selection year (Q1 = Sep-Nov; Q2 = Dec-Feb; Q3 = Mar-May; Q4 = Jun-Aug). Players were measured for somatic maturation and performed a battery of physical tests to determine aerobic fitness (Multi-Stage Fitness Test [MSFT]), Maximal Vertical Jump (MVJ), sprint (10 & 20m), and agility (T-Test) performance capabilities. Odds ratio’s (OR) revealed Q1 players were 5.3 times (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 4.08–6.83) more likely to be selected than Q4’s, with a particularly strong RAE bias observed in U9 (OR: 5.56) and U13-U16 squads (OR: 5.45–6.13). Multivariate statistical models identified few between quartile differences in anthropometric and fitness characteristics, and confirmed chronological age-group and estimated age at peak height velocity (APHV) as covariates. Assessment of practical significance using magnitude-based inferences demonstrated body size advantages in relatively older players (Q1 vs. Q4) that were very-likely small (Effect Size [ES]: 0.53–0.57), and likely to very-likely moderate (ES: 0.62–0.72) in U12 and U14 squads, respectively. Relatively older U12-U14 players also demonstrated small advantages in 10m (ES: 0.31–0.45) and 20m sprint performance (ES: 0.36–0.46). The data identify a strong RAE bias at the entry-point to English soccer developmental programmes. RAE was also stronger circa-PHV, and relatively older players demonstrated anaerobic performance advantages during the pubescent period. Talent selectors should consider motor function and maturation status assessments to avoid premature and unwarranted drop-out of soccer players within youth development programmes.