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      Time to Move on: HLA Matching Should Be Reconsidered in Modern Deceased Donor Kidney Allocation

      research-article
      , BMed, MS 1 , , MBBS, FRACP 2 , 3 , , BBiomedSc, MPH 4 , , MBBS, MClinEpi, FRACS 1 , 2 , 3 ,
      Transplantation Direct
      Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

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          Background.

          HLA matching has been the cornerstone of deceased donor kidney allocation policies worldwide but can lead to racial inequity. Although HLA matching has been shown to improve clinical outcomes, the long-term impacts of nonallogenic factors are being increasingly recognized. This has led some transplant programs to include points for nonallogenic factors, for example, age. Our study looks at long-term graft and patient outcomes based on allocation cohorts rather than individual number of HLA mismatches.

          Methods.

          Using the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry, we analyzed 7440 adult deceased donor transplant events from 2000 to 2018. Transplants were classified as HLA matched or nonmatched according to the OrganMatch score and the local allocation algorithms. Graft function was studied with linear mixed modeling and graft rejection with logistic and binomial regression. Time to graft failure and recipient survival were examined with Kaplan–Meier curve and Cox regression models.

          Results.

          Forty percent of transplants were HLA matched. Mean glomerular filtration rate was 1.76 mL/min/1.73 m 2 higher in the matched transplants ( P < 0.001). Matched transplants had longer time to graft failure (15.9 versus 12.7 y; P < 0.001) and improved recipient survival (risk of death hazard ratio, 0.83; P = 0.003). Matched recipients spent less time on dialysis (28.1 versus 44.8 mo; P < 0.001), and this significantly contributed to the benefits seen in graft loss and recipient survival. Caucasian recipients were more likely to receive a matched transplant than non-Caucasians.

          Conclusions.

          Matched transplants showed benefits in graft and recipient outcomes; however, some of these results were of small magnitude, whereas others seemed to be due in part to a reduction in time on dialysis. The benefit for the matched cohort came at the expense of the nonmatched cohort, who spent longer on dialysis and were more likely to be of a minority racial background.

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          Most cited references34

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          Comparison of mortality in all patients on dialysis, patients on dialysis awaiting transplantation, and recipients of a first cadaveric transplant.

          The extent to which renal allotransplantation - as compared with long-term dialysis - improves survival among patients with end-stage renal disease is controversial, because those selected for transplantation may have a lower base-line risk of death. In an attempt to distinguish the effects of patient selection from those of transplantation itself, we conducted a longitudinal study of mortality in 228,552 patients who were receiving long-term dialysis for end-stage renal disease. Of these patients, 46,164 were placed on a waiting list for transplantation, 23,275 of whom received a first cadaveric transplant between 1991 and 1997. The relative risk of death and survival were assessed with time-dependent nonproportional-hazards analysis, with adjustment for age, race, sex, cause of end-stage renal disease, geographic region, time from first treatment for end-stage renal disease to placement on the waiting list, and year of initial placement on the list. Among the various subgroups, the standardized mortality ratio for the patients on dialysis who were awaiting transplantation (annual death rate, 6.3 per 100 patient-years) was 38 to 58 percent lower than that for all patients on dialysis (annual death rate, 16.1 per 100 patient-years). The relative risk of death during the first 2 weeks after transplantation was 2.8 times as high as that for patients on dialysis who had equal lengths of follow-up since placement on the waiting list, but at 18 months the risk was much lower (relative risk, 0.32; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.30 to 0.35; P<0.001). The likelihood of survival became equal in the two groups within 5 to 673 days after transplantation in all the subgroups of patients we examined. The long-term mortality rate was 48 to 82 percent lower among transplant recipients (annual death rate, 3.8 per 100 patient-years) than patients on the waiting list, with relatively larger benefits among patients who were 20 to 39 years old, white patients, and younger patients with diabetes. Among patients with end-stage renal disease, healthier patients are placed on the waiting list for transplantation, and long-term survival is better among those on the waiting list who eventually undergo transplantation.
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            Systematic review: kidney transplantation compared with dialysis in clinically relevant outcomes.

            Individual studies indicate that kidney transplantation is associated with lower mortality and improved quality of life compared with chronic dialysis treatment. We did a systematic review to summarize the benefits of transplantation, aiming to identify characteristics associated with especially large or small relative benefit. Results were not pooled because of expected diversity inherent to observational studies. Risk of bias was assessed using the Downs and Black checklist and items related to time-to-event analysis techniques. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched up to February 2010. Cohort studies comparing adult chronic dialysis patients with kidney transplantation recipients for clinical outcomes were selected. We identified 110 eligible studies with a total of 1 922 300 participants. Most studies found significantly lower mortality associated with transplantation, and the relative magnitude of the benefit seemed to increase over time (p < 0.001). Most studies also found that the risk of cardiovascular events was significantly reduced among transplant recipients. Quality of life was significantly and substantially better among transplant recipients. Despite increases in the age and comorbidity of contemporary transplant recipients, the relative benefits of transplantation seem to be increasing over time. These findings validate current attempts to increase the number of people worldwide that benefit from kidney transplantation. ©2011 The Authors Journal compilation©2011 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.
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              A comparative analysis of survival of patients on dialysis and after kidney transplantation

              ABSTRACT Background Kidney transplant survival benefits are not observed for around 8 months after transplantation because of a higher complications rate in early post-transplant periods. This study compares survival of patients awaiting transplantation with survival of transplant recipients and non-listed dialysis patients in Ireland. Methods In this retrospective analysis, the relative-risk (RR) of death was assessed with time-dependent, non-proportional hazards analysis, with adjustment for age, cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), time from first treatment for ESKD to placement on the waiting list and year of initial placement on the list. Results A total of 3597 patients were included. Annual death rates per 100 patient-years at risk for all patients on dialysis, waiting-list patients and transplant recipients were 16.5, 2.4 and 1.2, respectively. Death rate was highest among diabetics. The relative risk of death for all patients on dialysis was five times higher than the waiting-list patients [RR, 4.90; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.70–6.52; P < 0.001]. Time to survival equilibration was 1 year. Thereafter, the 5-year mortality risk was estimated to be 47% lower than that of the patients on the waiting list (RR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.37–0.77; P = 0.001). Conclusions Transplant recipients had a higher risk of death initially, but a better long-term survival. Time to death risk equilibration was longer compared with other studies. This could be explained by better survival rates in our waiting-list cohort.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Transplant Direct
                Transplant Direct
                TXD
                Transplantation Direct
                Lippincott Williams & Wilkins (Hagerstown, MD )
                2373-8731
                21 February 2022
                March 2022
                : 8
                : 3
                : e1295
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Surgical Services, John Hunter Hospital, Hunter New England Local Health District, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
                [2 ] Newcastle Transplant Unit, Division of Surgery, John Hunter Hospital, Hunter New England Local Health District, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
                [3 ] Hunter Transplant Research Foundation, Hunter Medical Research Institute, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
                [4 ] CReDITSS, Hunter Medical Research Institute, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
                Author notes
                Correspondence: Munish Heer, MBBS, MS, Surgical Services, John Hunter Hospital, Hunter New England Local Health District, Newcastle, NSW, Australia. ( munish.heer@ 123456health.nsw.gov.au ).
                Article
                00011
                10.1097/TXD.0000000000001295
                8966965
                4db215ee-d94c-4d45-8a9a-d37e1a9715d3
                Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Transplantation Direct. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.

                History
                : 10 December 2021
                : 20 December 2021
                Categories
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                Kidney Transplantation
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