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      COVID-19 forecasts using Internet search information in the United States

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      Scientific Reports
      Nature Publishing Group UK
      Infectious diseases, Statistics

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          Abstract

          As the COVID-19 ravaging through the globe, accurate forecasts of the disease spread are crucial for situational awareness, resource allocation, and public health decision-making. Alternative to the traditional disease surveillance data collected by the United States (US) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), big data from Internet such as online search volumes also contain valuable information for tracking infectious disease dynamics such as influenza epidemic. In this study, we develop a statistical model using Internet search volume of relevant queries to track and predict COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Inspired by the strong association between COVID-19 death trend and symptom-related search queries such as “loss of taste”, we combine search volume information with COVID-19 time series information for US national level forecasts, while leveraging the cross-state cross-resolution spatial temporal framework, pooling information from search volume and COVID-19 reports across regions for state level predictions. Lastly, we aggregate the state-level frameworks in an ensemble fashion to produce the final state-level 4-week forecasts. Our method outperforms the baseline time-series model, while performing reasonably against other publicly available benchmark models for both national and state level forecast.

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          An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time

          In December, 2019, a local outbreak of pneumonia of initially unknown cause was detected in Wuhan (Hubei, China), and was quickly determined to be caused by a novel coronavirus, 1 namely severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The outbreak has since spread to every province of mainland China as well as 27 other countries and regions, with more than 70 000 confirmed cases as of Feb 17, 2020. 2 In response to this ongoing public health emergency, we developed an online interactive dashboard, hosted by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA, to visualise and track reported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in real time. The dashboard, first shared publicly on Jan 22, illustrates the location and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries for all affected countries. It was developed to provide researchers, public health authorities, and the general public with a user-friendly tool to track the outbreak as it unfolds. All data collected and displayed are made freely available, initially through Google Sheets and now through a GitHub repository, along with the feature layers of the dashboard, which are now included in the Esri Living Atlas. The dashboard reports cases at the province level in China; at the city level in the USA, Australia, and Canada; and at the country level otherwise. During Jan 22–31, all data collection and processing were done manually, and updates were typically done twice a day, morning and night (US Eastern Time). As the outbreak evolved, the manual reporting process became unsustainable; therefore, on Feb 1, we adopted a semi-automated living data stream strategy. Our primary data source is DXY, an online platform run by members of the Chinese medical community, which aggregates local media and government reports to provide cumulative totals of COVID-19 cases in near real time at the province level in China and at the country level otherwise. Every 15 min, the cumulative case counts are updated from DXY for all provinces in China and for other affected countries and regions. For countries and regions outside mainland China (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), we found DXY cumulative case counts to frequently lag behind other sources; we therefore manually update these case numbers throughout the day when new cases are identified. To identify new cases, we monitor various Twitter feeds, online news services, and direct communication sent through the dashboard. Before manually updating the dashboard, we confirm the case numbers with regional and local health departments, including the respective centres for disease control and prevention (CDC) of China, Taiwan, and Europe, the Hong Kong Department of Health, the Macau Government, and WHO, as well as city-level and state-level health authorities. For city-level case reports in the USA, Australia, and Canada, which we began reporting on Feb 1, we rely on the US CDC, the government of Canada, the Australian Government Department of Health, and various state or territory health authorities. All manual updates (for countries and regions outside mainland China) are coordinated by a team at Johns Hopkins University. The case data reported on the dashboard aligns with the daily Chinese CDC 3 and WHO situation reports 2 for within and outside of mainland China, respectively (figure ). Furthermore, the dashboard is particularly effective at capturing the timing of the first reported case of COVID-19 in new countries or regions (appendix). With the exception of Australia, Hong Kong, and Italy, the CSSE at Johns Hopkins University has reported newly infected countries ahead of WHO, with Hong Kong and Italy reported within hours of the corresponding WHO situation report. Figure Comparison of COVID-19 case reporting from different sources Daily cumulative case numbers (starting Jan 22, 2020) reported by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), WHO situation reports, and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese CDC) for within (A) and outside (B) mainland China. Given the popularity and impact of the dashboard to date, we plan to continue hosting and managing the tool throughout the entirety of the COVID-19 outbreak and to build out its capabilities to establish a standing tool to monitor and report on future outbreaks. We believe our efforts are crucial to help inform modelling efforts and control measures during the earliest stages of the outbreak.
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            Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus -2 (SARS-CoV-2): A global pandemic and treatments strategies

            Highlights • The viral SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to detailed and exhaustive need to assess epidemiology • The spread of virus at global level is due to human to human transmission • Existing treatment is essentially supportive; role of antiviral agents is yet to be established • Detection of biomarker could also be useful in early screening of infection
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              Digital oximetry biomarkers for assessing respiratory function: standards of measurement, physiological interpretation, and clinical use

              Pulse oximetry is routinely used to non-invasively monitor oxygen saturation levels. A low oxygen level in the blood means low oxygen in the tissues, which can ultimately lead to organ failure. Yet, contrary to heart rate variability measures, a field which has seen the development of stable standards and advanced toolboxes and software, no such standards and open tools exist for continuous oxygen saturation time series variability analysis. The primary objective of this research was to identify, implement and validate key digital oximetry biomarkers (OBMs) for the purpose of creating a standard and associated reference toolbox for continuous oximetry time series analysis. We review the sleep medicine literature to identify clinically relevant OBMs. We implement these biomarkers and demonstrate their clinical value within the context of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) diagnosis on a total of n = 3806 individual polysomnography recordings totaling 26,686 h of continuous data. A total of 44 digital oximetry biomarkers were implemented. Reference ranges for each biomarker are provided for individuals with mild, moderate, and severe OSA and for non-OSA recordings. Linear regression analysis between biomarkers and the apnea hypopnea index (AHI) showed a high correlation, which reached \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\overline R ^2 = 0.82$$\end{document} R ¯ 2 = 0.82 . The resulting python OBM toolbox, denoted “pobm”, was contributed to the open software PhysioZoo (physiozoo.org). Studying the variability of the continuous oxygen saturation time series using pbom may provide information on the underlying physiological control systems and enhance our understanding of the manifestations and etiology of diseases, with emphasis on respiratory diseases.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                shihao.yang@isye.gatech.edu
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                7 July 2022
                7 July 2022
                2022
                : 12
                : 11539
                Affiliations
                GRID grid.213917.f, ISNI 0000 0001 2097 4943, H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, , Georgia Institute of Technology, ; 755 Ferst Dr NW, Atlanta, GA 30332-0205 USA
                Article
                15478
                10.1038/s41598-022-15478-y
                9261899
                35798774
                4ab019f8-6f1c-4832-a4e8-908f6b797690
                © The Author(s) 2022

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 22 December 2021
                : 24 June 2022
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                © The Author(s) 2022

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                infectious diseases,statistics
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                infectious diseases, statistics

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