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      Trust in the scientific research community predicts intent to comply with COVID-19 prevention measures: An analysis of a large-scale international survey dataset

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      Epidemiology and Infection
      Cambridge University Press
      COVID-19, trust in science, Bayesian analysis, preventive measures, compliance, vaccine

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          Abstract

          In the present study, I explored the relationship between people's trust in different agents related to the prevention of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their compliance with pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical preventive measures. The COVIDiSTRESSII Global Survey dataset, which was collected from international samples, was analysed to examine the aforementioned relationship across different countries. For data-driven exploration, network analysis and Bayesian generalised linear model (GLM) analysis were performed. The result from network analysis demonstrated that trust in the scientific research community was most central in the network of trust and compliance. In addition, the outcome from Bayesian GLM analysis indicated that the same factor, trust in the scientific research community, was most fundamental in predicting participants' intent to comply with both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical preventive measures. I briefly discussed the implications of the findings, the importance of trust in the scientific research community in explaining people's compliance with a measure to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

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          Most cited references43

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          Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

          Following the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behaviour. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. We estimate that-for all of the countries we consider here-current interventions have been sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (probability Rt < 1.0 is greater than 99%) and achieve control of the epidemic. We estimate that across all 11 countries combined, between 12 and 15 million individuals were infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4 May 2020, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions-and lockdowns in particular-have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.
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            BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting

            Abstract Background As mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel’s largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. Methods All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19–related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator. Results Each study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions. Conclusions This study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19–related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.
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              Evaluating Effect Size in Psychological Research: Sense and Nonsense

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Epidemiol Infect
                Epidemiol Infect
                HYG
                Epidemiology and Infection
                Cambridge University Press (Cambridge, UK )
                0950-2688
                1469-4409
                2022
                08 February 2022
                08 February 2022
                : 150
                : e36
                Affiliations
                [1]Educational Psychology Program, University of Alabama , Tuscaloosa, Alabama, 35487, USA
                Author notes
                Author for correspondence: Hyemin Han, E-mail: hyemin.han@ 123456ua.edu
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7181-2565
                Article
                S0950268822000255
                10.1017/S0950268822000255
                8886075
                35131001
                47f46154-0c8a-4eff-bc82-b80edd3eb11f
                © The Author(s) 2022

                This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.

                History
                : 16 November 2021
                : 24 January 2022
                : 03 February 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 2, References: 42, Pages: 9
                Categories
                Original Paper

                Public health
                covid-19,trust in science,bayesian analysis,preventive measures,compliance,vaccine
                Public health
                covid-19, trust in science, bayesian analysis, preventive measures, compliance, vaccine

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