Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Arrest After Alcohol Septal Ablation for Hypertrophic Obstructive Cardiomyopathy: ASA-SCARRE Risk Score

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adults. Current risk algorithms provide only a crude estimate of risk and fail to account for the different effect size of individual risk factors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new SCD risk prediction model that provides individualized risk estimates. The prognostic model was derived from a retrospective, multi-centre longitudinal cohort study. The model was developed from the entire data set using the Cox proportional hazards model and internally validated using bootstrapping. The cohort consisted of 3675 consecutive patients from six centres. During a follow-up period of 24 313 patient-years (median 5.7 years), 198 patients (5%) died suddenly or had an appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock. Of eight pre-specified predictors, age, maximal left ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left ventricular outflow tract gradient, family history of SCD, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and unexplained syncope were associated with SCD/appropriate ICD shock at the 15% significance level. These predictors were included in the final model to estimate individual probabilities of SCD at 5 years. The calibration slope was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.08), C-index was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.72), and D-statistic was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.32). For every 16 ICDs implanted in patients with ≥4% 5-year SCD risk, potentially 1 patient will be saved from SCD at 5 years. A second model with the data set split into independent development and validation cohorts had very similar estimates of coefficients and performance when externally validated. This is the first validated SCD risk prediction model for patients with HCM and provides accurate individualized estimates for the probability of SCD using readily collected clinical parameters. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2013. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com. Show more

This executive summary of the hypertrophic cardiomyopathy clinical practice guideline provides recommendations and algorithms for clinicians to diagnose and manage hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in adult and pediatric patients as well as supporting documentation to encourage their use. A comprehensive literature search was conducted from January 1, 2010, to April 30, 2020, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Collaboration, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality reports, and other relevant databases. Many recommendations from the earlier hypertrophic cardiomyopathy guidelines have been updated with new evidence or a better understanding of earlier evidence. This summary operationalizes the recommendations from the full guideline and presents a combination of diagnostic work-up, genetic and family screening, risk stratification approaches, lifestyle modifications, surgical and catheter interventions, and medications that constitute components of guideline directed medical therapy. For both guideline-directed medical therapy and other recommended drug treatment regimens, the reader is advised to follow dosing, contraindications and drug-drug interactions based on product insert materials. Show more