A likelihood-ratio framework for evaluating results of forensic gunshot-residue analysis

Errors in sample handling or test interpretation may cause false positives in forensic DNA testing. This article uses a Bayesian model to show how the potential for a false positive affects the evidentiary value of DNA evidence and the sufficiency of DNA evidence to meet traditional legal standards for conviction. The Bayesian analysis is contrasted with the "false positive fallacy," an intuitively appealing but erroneous alternative interpretation. The findings show the importance of having accurate information about both the random match probability and the false positive probability when evaluating DNA evidence. It is argued that ignoring or underestimating the potential for a false positive can lead to serious errors of interpretation, particularly when the suspect is identified through a "DNA dragnet" or database search, and that ignorance of the true rate of error creates an important element of uncertainty about the value of DNA evidence. Show more

A review of the literature concerning the fate and behavior of gunshot residue (GSR) is presented. A number of concomitant parameters including firearm and ammunition type, plume and GSR material characteristics, travel distances, chemical composition and GSR morphology are critically discussed in relation to their effects on the distribution and deposition, transfer and persistence processes of GSR. The underlying mechanisms associated with such processes are also considered. Knowledge of these processes on GSR materials could provide valuable information concerning scene preservation and subsequent forensic sampling. The number of GSR particles deposited can vary significantly with each firearm discharge, highlighting the potential to produce distinctive data in each individual case. With the continual development and compositional changes of new ammunition types, further evaluation of the effect these processes may have on GSR evidence and their possible influence on the interpretation of the analytical results should be given due consideration. Show more