61
views
0
recommends
+1 Recommend
0 collections
    0
    shares
      • Record: found
      • Abstract: found
      • Article: found
      Is Open Access

      Safe and just Earth system boundaries

      research-article
      1 , 2 , 3 , , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 3 , 9 , 10 , , 11 , 1 , 3 , 11 , 12 , 10 , 13 , 14 , 3 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 14 , 20 , 11 , 1 , 18 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 9 , 4 , 4 , 1 , 4 , 14 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 1 , 29 , 22 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 9 , 33 , 34 , 9 , 14 , 35 , 9 , 36 , 3 , 9 , 37 , 25 , 38 , 38 , 6 , 39 , 40 , 7 , 8 , 41 , 42
      Nature
      Nature Publishing Group UK
      Climate and Earth system modelling, Biodiversity, Environmental impact, Element cycles, Hydrology

      Read this article at

      Bookmark
          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked 13 , yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently 4, 5 . Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice) 4 . The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

          Abstract

          We find that justice considerations constrain the integrated Earth system boundaries more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading, and our assessment provides a foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people.

          Related collections

          Most cited references104

          • Record: found
          • Abstract: found
          • Article: found

          Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

          The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.
            Bookmark
            • Record: found
            • Abstract: found
            • Article: found
            Is Open Access

            Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

            Summary Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Interpretation Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.
              Bookmark
              • Record: found
              • Abstract: not found
              • Article: not found

              A safe operating space for humanity.

                Bookmark

                Author and article information

                Contributors
                johan.rockstrom@pik-potsdam.de
                steven.lade@futureearth.org
                Journal
                Nature
                Nature
                Nature
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                0028-0836
                1476-4687
                31 May 2023
                31 May 2023
                2023
                : 619
                : 7968
                : 102-111
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.4556.2, ISNI 0000 0004 0493 9031, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, ; Potsdam, Germany
                [2 ]GRID grid.11348.3f, ISNI 0000 0001 0942 1117, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, , University of Potsdam, ; Potsdam, Germany
                [3 ]GRID grid.10548.38, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 9377, Stockholm Resilience Centre, , Stockholm University, ; Stockholm, Sweden
                [4 ]GRID grid.7177.6, ISNI 0000000084992262, Amsterdam Institute for Social Science Research, , University of Amsterdam, ; Amsterdam, The Netherlands
                [5 ]GRID grid.420326.1, ISNI 0000 0004 0624 5658, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, ; Delft, The Netherlands
                [6 ]GRID grid.9227.e, ISNI 0000000119573309, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, , Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; Lanzhou, China
                [7 ]GRID grid.8658.3, ISNI 0000 0001 2234 550X, China Meteorological Administration, ; Beijing, China
                [8 ]GRID grid.410726.6, ISNI 0000 0004 1797 8419, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; Beijing, China
                [9 ]GRID grid.499459.c, Future Earth Secretariat, ; Stockholm, Sweden
                [10 ]GRID grid.1001.0, ISNI 0000 0001 2180 7477, Fenner School of Environment & Society, , Australian National University, ; Canberra, Australia
                [11 ]GRID grid.8391.3, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8024, Global Systems Institute, , University of Exeter, ; Exeter, UK
                [12 ]Georesilience Analytics, Leatherhead, UK
                [13 ]GRID grid.34980.36, ISNI 0000 0001 0482 5067, Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, , Indian Institute of Science, ; Bengaluru, India
                [14 ]GRID grid.1022.1, ISNI 0000 0004 0437 5432, Australian Rivers Institute, , Griffith University, ; Brisbane, Australia
                [15 ]GRID grid.507162.7, EAT, ; Oslo, Norway
                [16 ]GRID grid.475046.4, ISNI 0000 0001 0943 820X, Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT of the CGIAR, ; Montpellier, France
                [17 ]GRID grid.34477.33, ISNI 0000000122986657, Center for Health & the Global Environment, , University of Washington, ; Seattle, WA USA
                [18 ]GRID grid.134563.6, ISNI 0000 0001 2168 186X, School of Geography, Development and Environment, , University of Arizona, ; Tucson, AZ USA
                [19 ]GRID grid.8652.9, ISNI 0000 0004 1937 1485, Institute for Environment and Sanitation Studies, , University of Ghana, ; Legon, Ghana
                [20 ]GRID grid.26091.3c, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 9959, Graduate School of Media and Governance, , Keio University, ; Fujisawa, Japan
                [21 ]GRID grid.9026.d, ISNI 0000 0001 2287 2617, Functional Forest Ecology, , Universität Hamburg, ; Barsbüttel, Germany
                [22 ]GRID grid.75276.31, ISNI 0000 0001 1955 9478, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, ; Laxenburg, Austria
                [23 ]GRID grid.452188.2, CORDIO East Africa, ; Mombasa, Kenya
                [24 ]GRID grid.34980.36, ISNI 0000 0001 0482 5067, Interdisciplinary Center for Water Research, , Indian Institute of Science, ; Bengaluru, India
                [25 ]GRID grid.5477.1, ISNI 0000000120346234, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, , Utrecht University, ; Utrecht, The Netherlands
                [26 ]GRID grid.437426.0, ISNI 0000 0001 0616 8355, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, ; The Hague, The Netherlands
                [27 ]GRID grid.419754.a, ISNI 0000 0001 2259 5533, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, ; Birmensdorf, Switzerland
                [28 ]GRID grid.12380.38, ISNI 0000 0004 1754 9227, Institute for Environmental Studies, , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, ; Amsterdam, The Netherlands
                [29 ]GRID grid.11348.3f, ISNI 0000 0001 0942 1117, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, , University of Potsdam, ; Potsdam, Germany
                [30 ]GRID grid.14709.3b, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8649, Bieler School of Environment, , McGill University, ; Montreal, Canada
                [31 ]GRID grid.14709.3b, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8649, Department of Natural Resource Sciences, , McGill University, ; Montreal, Canada
                [32 ]GRID grid.5155.4, ISNI 0000 0001 1089 1036, Center for Environmental Systems Research, , Kassel University, ; Kassel, Germany
                [33 ]GRID grid.212340.6, ISNI 0000000122985718, Environmental Sciences Initiative, Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center, , City University of New York, ; New York, NY USA
                [34 ]GRID grid.8658.3, ISNI 0000 0001 2234 550X, National Climate Center, ; Beijing, China
                [35 ]GRID grid.1022.1, ISNI 0000 0004 0437 5432, School of Environment & Science, , Griffith University, ; Nathan, Australia
                [36 ]GRID grid.4818.5, ISNI 0000 0001 0791 5666, Soil Geography and Landscape Group, , Wageningen University & Research, ; Wageningen, The Netherlands
                [37 ]GRID grid.4818.5, ISNI 0000 0001 0791 5666, Department of Environmental Sciences, , Wageningen University & Research, ; Wageningen, The Netherlands
                [38 ]GRID grid.4818.5, ISNI 0000 0001 0791 5666, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, , Wageningen University & Research, ; Wageningen, The Netherlands
                [39 ]GRID grid.20513.35, ISNI 0000 0004 1789 9964, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, , Beijing Normal University, ; Beijing, China
                [40 ]GRID grid.41156.37, ISNI 0000 0001 2314 964X, School of Life Sciences, , Nanjing University, ; Nanjing, China
                [41 ]GRID grid.11480.3c, ISNI 0000000121671098, Basque Centre for Climate Change bc3, , Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, ; Biscay, Spain
                [42 ]GRID grid.291951.7, ISNI 0000 0000 8750 413X, Appalachian Laboratory, , University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, ; Frostburg, MD USA
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8988-2983
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1424-2660
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9719-9826
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0411-8519
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3080-0503
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-7461
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6556-8041
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3079-0600
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6540-3586
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3631-8745
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4746-8236
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8130-4684
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0637-7963
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7498
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6660-960X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6130-9496
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2256-6649
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3766-2599
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7230-9723
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2293-5221
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8334-0825
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5343-8194
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0398-2831
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5603-1015
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8745-984X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4409-2800
                http://orcid.org/0009-0006-7803-8182
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4936-2275
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1906-9764
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4227-4013
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2100-0312
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5511-1432
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9974-0612
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1841-9032
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3350-0784
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1619-1537
                Article
                6083
                10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
                10322705
                37258676
                26fbda32-edfd-40c6-8f88-0d85935fd474
                © The Author(s) 2023

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 23 June 2022
                : 14 April 2023
                Categories
                Article
                Custom metadata
                © Springer Nature Limited 2023

                Uncategorized
                climate and earth system modelling,biodiversity,environmental impact,element cycles,hydrology

                Comments

                Comment on this article