Prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks by hydroclimatic covariates: a comparative study of statistical models

Abstract

Leptospirosis, the infectious disease caused by a spirochete bacteria, is a major public health problem worldwide. In Argentina, some regions have climatic and geographical characteristics that favor the habitat of bacteria of the Leptospira genus, whose survival strongly depends on climatic factors, enhanced by climate change, which increase the problems associated with people’s health. In order to have a method to predict leptospirosis cases, in this paper, five time series forecasting methods are compared: two parametric (autoregressive integrated moving average and an alternative one that allows covariates, ARIMA and ARIMAX, respectively), two nonparametric (Nadaraya-Watson Kernel estimator, one and two kernels versions, NW-1 K and NW-2 K), and one semiparametric (semi-functional partial linear regression, SFPLR) method. For this, the number of cases of leptospirosis registered from 2009 to 2020 in three important cities of northeastern Argentina is used, as well as hydroclimatic covariates related to the presence of cases. According to the obtained results, there is no method that improves considerably the rest and can be recommended as a unique tool for leptospirosis prediction. However, in general, the NW-2 K method gets a better performance. This work, in addition to using a long-term high-quality time series, enriches the area of applications of statistical models to epidemiological leptospirosis data by the incorporation of hydroclimatic variables, and it is recommended directing further efforts in this line of research, under the context of current climate change.